Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...I AM
NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BE TOO STRONG.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER MILD. COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS. CLOUDY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OR
JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE TODAY.

ARM/10

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THOSE LITTLE CHANGES
MADE WERE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST TO WEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE ISENTROPIC
EFFECT OF THE BUILDING LOWER BOUNDARY WEDGE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE FROM MONDAY ON. WEDGE
BEGINS TO MODIFY AS THE RIDGE/HIGH MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
WILL GET GOING IN THE MIDWEST...SHOOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
BRING ANOTHER TRAILING/RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT MORE STEAM AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO TAKE THE FRONT INTO THE
GULF BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
TRANSIT THE OHIO VALLEY INSTEAD OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO
PROVIDE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO BE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING ON FRIDAY.

JONES/90
JD/81

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME CLOUD PROBLEMS STILL REMAIN ACROSS SOME TAF SITES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...VFR WILL
PREVAIL. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD APPROACH A FEW TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COVERAGE BEING SO ISOLATED...DECIDED TO GO
WITH VCSH INSTEAD OF PREVAILING. LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND COULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. RAIN
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER TOMORROW...BUT MOST OF IT WILL
BE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  67  53  65  49 /  50  80  50  20  20
ANNISTON    56  69  54  68  52 /  50  90  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  70  56  70  55 /  50  90  50  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  58  75  57 /  50  80  50  20  10
CALERA      57  72  56  71  55 /  40  90  50  20  20
AUBURN      57  72  53  64  50 /  30  80  50  20  20
MONTGOMERY  58  76  58  73  54 /  30  70  40  10  20
TROY        54  76  55  74  54 /  20  50  40  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&