Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 090102
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ALC075-090130-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080109T0130Z/
LAMAR AL-
702 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST
FOR LAMAR COUNTY...

AT 657 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAMAR COUNTY
AIRPORT...OR ABOUT NEAR VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WESTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3377 8826 3384 8824 3391 8824 3392 8823
      3397 8823 3399 8822 3406 8799 3372 8795
      3360 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 244DEG 52KT 3384 8800

$$

HA

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 090120
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ALC075-090130-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080109T0130Z/
LAMAR AL-
720 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAMAR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE
WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WESTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3377 8826 3384 8824 3391 8824 3392 8823
      3397 8823 3399 8822 3406 8799 3372 8795
      3360 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 244DEG 52KT 3395 8772

$$

HA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  MODELS
INDICATE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT PULLS NORTH OF THE AREA.  FOR TONIGHT WILL
FORECAST DEFINITE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
AND MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EAST.  FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WASHOUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING 850 MB SOUTHERLY FLOW.  WILL NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTHWARD.  GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

OLD BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS
SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE SOMEWHAT IN-LINE WITH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS, HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT AND
SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT TOMORROW.
CURRENT PROJECTION HAS THE FRONT INTO WEST ALABAMA BY 6 PM
THURSDAY AND EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FRIDAY TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A PATTERN CHANGE
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AN ESTABLISHED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST.  BITS OF ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE FLOW ARE OCCASIONALLY TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOTHING VERY SIGNIFICANT. BEST CHANCE
OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BUT THE KEY FEATURE
IS THE TURN TOWARDS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODELS WITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR
TWO FROM THE MODELS SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS BEFORE
TAKING THE TEMPERATURES TOO FAR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH 03Z...THEN SLIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT BY 15 TO 16Z. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST THROUGH
03Z...THEN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER 04Z AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH 03Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SECTIONS BY 05Z.  AT MGM AND TOI EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 16Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-
CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY- ST
.CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-100041-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
641 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS STRONG...AS WELL AS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A
DEMOPOLIS TO BIRMINGHAM LINE...THROUGH 1 AM. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A SECOND
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT STILL EXISTS. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN FUTURE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY ON THURSDAY.

16