Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS84 KBMX 291817
RFWBMX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2008

...DRY AIRMASS LIKELY TO CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON...

.AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH...
MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SOME VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT AND BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
DEMOPOLIS TO WEDOWEE LINE.

ALZ028-029-033-035>050-292300-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080429T2300Z/
CLAY-RANDOLPH-PERRY-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-
DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-
RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
117 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S...WILL RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THESE
VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THREE TO FOUR HOURS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THESE VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A DEMOPOLIS TO WEDOWEE LINE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
433 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME STRATUS CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINNING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE A FEW
PASSING CIRRUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AREAWIDE. LOOK FOR 60S GENERALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TO UPPER 60S AND MAYBE A FEW LOW 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AREAWIDE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30 IN THE NORTH...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST...TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DIMINISH AND THE AREA
IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME AREAS MAY REACH
RECORD LOWS BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE AND NORMAL TEMPS BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
BE SOME 10 TO 13 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREAWIDE. ATTENTION ON FRIDAY TURNS
TO A WOBBLY CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SAID WOBBLY CUT-
OFF LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE SPOKES OF THE CUT-OFF. CURRENT
RUN BRINGS A NEGATIVE TILT AXIS ACROSS THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD ENERGIZE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS MODEL RUN VERY SIMILAR TO A
FEW DAYS AGO.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...THE PATTERN GOES ZONAL. THIS
SHOULD GIVE US A FEW DAYS OF BENIGN WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WEAK FRONT WITH A DISSIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO ONLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 08-09Z. MGM AND TOI SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BY 13-14Z. NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP USHER IN A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SOME VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT AND
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION HERE
LIES WHETHER OR NOT LOCATIONS WILL SEE THESE VALUES FOR FOUR OR MORE
HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING...OR HIGH FIRE
DANGER...FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO WEDOWEE LINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS EITHER SETTING OR TYING THE PREVIOUS
RECORD LOWS. BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL
30TH:

STATION LOW YEAR
------- --- ----
BHM     36  1969
ANB     39  1965
TCL     42  1965/1969
MGM     45  1965/1969/1992

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  37  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  38  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  39  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  68  40  80  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      65  41  78  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      68  41  75  54  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  69  42  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        70  41  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM FOR CLAY-RANDOLPH-PERRY-
CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-
ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR

&&

16
JONES/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
743 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-300043-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
743 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.