Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
605 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER 20S IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS.  THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR
A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES THERE
AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE 40 DEGREES.  ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR THE WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO MOSTLY BETWEEN
35 AND 40 DEGREES.

41

LARGELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THIS FAST MOVING PATTERN WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO TAP
SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE OPPORTUNITIES OF HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER ARE RATHER SLIM.

AFTER A DRY MID-WEEK PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT HELPING TO DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BEYOND ITS MOST ACTIVE STAGE WHEN/IF IT
GETS HERE. OUTPUT FROM GFS SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL GET INTO NORTH
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THEN STALL OUT THERE
BEFORE DYING. ECMWF HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
SO IT PUSHES THE FRONT IN A LITTLE SOONER AND TAKES IT ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THIS EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
AT LEAST THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GFS (IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY)
HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS FRONTAL POSITION SINCE YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...I TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION IN THE
POPS/SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SIMILAR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS INDICATED FOR EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK.  OTHER THAN THAT...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A NICE WARMUP THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC AND P6SM VSBYS. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST TODAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON MIXING WILL HELP KEEP DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE MID 20S...DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITES BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

41

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...
FREEZE WARNING ALL AREAS UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.
RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS 1 PM TO 7 PM TODAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-261100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
550 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF
OUTDOOR BURNING IS PLANNED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY.