Wind Chill Advisory 11, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM CONTINUING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND GETTING READY
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SLATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FIRST AND FOREMOST...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OVER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
IN ITS WAKE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
UPGRADED TO A WIND CHILL WARNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FALL TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 BELOW ZERO...IN COMMUNITIES LIKE WILLISTON AND
GARRISON. BORDERLINE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OVER MANY OTHER
AREAS AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SORT THIS OUT AND UPGRADE TO
WARNINGS WHERE APPROPRIATE FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. DESPITE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH AND NOT CROSS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS DIDNT WANT TO
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF FALLING SNOW
HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
HAZARD AND THREAT WILL REST SOLELY ON THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES...FROM BOTTINEAU SOUTH TO
JAMESTOWN AND ASHLEY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUE OVER THESE ZONES TODAY...BUT FULLY EXPECT THAT LATER
TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE
ABOVE A MILE...THE WINTER STORM WILL BE CANCELED AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. AGAIN WILL DEFER THIS ACTION TO
LATER SHIFTS.

A BRIEF/24 HOUR RESPITE COMMENCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH
TO PROGRESS INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RANGE.
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS STORM
POTENTIAL AND ALSO WHAT TO EXPECT INTO CHRISTMAS...ANTICIPATING THE
HIGH TRAVEL VOLUME ALL NEXT WEEK. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE
HWO AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM EXEMPLIFIES THE PREVIOUS SNOW STORM WITH
ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TYPE SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW/MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION OUT
AHEAD OF IT...THEN COLDER BEHIND IT BUT NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE STEADY SNOW
COMING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE START TIME
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE SOMETIMES DIFFICULT...AT
LEAST RIGHT NOW THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW WOULD INITIATE.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO ARRIVE AFTER THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW
FALLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING A RESPITE FROM THE STORMY WINTER WEATHER OF LATE. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLORADO LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BENEATH A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRESENT
AVIATION HAZARDS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS THE STATE.
EXPECT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IN SOME FAVORED AREAS

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

KS/RSL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-211000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...MOHALL...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...MINOT...TOWNER...
RUGBY...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...
GARRISON...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY...CARRINGTON...BEACH...MEDORA...
DICKINSON...MANDAN...BISMARCK...STEELE...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...
MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES...LINTON...
NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
250 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008 /150 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2008/

...WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK...

A WINTER STORM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXIT
THE REGION LATER TODAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SUBZERO TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC STORM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
THEN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

GIVEN THAT THIS STORM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO ITS EXACT EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS HOLIDAY WEEK. PERSONS
PLANING TRAVEL DURING THIS PERIOD ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK APPEARS TO BE QUIET...AT LEAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE
SLIGHTLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

KJB