Wind Advisory 6, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 141553
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1053 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
ALLOWING FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM CARRINGTON...SOUTH TO
JAMESTOWN...NAPOLEON AND ASHLEY...AND EAST TO EDGELEY AND OAKES.
THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...BUT REMAIN BREEZY AT 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT.

TRAVELERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD
USE CAUTION.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-150000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0006.080414T1700Z-080415T0300Z/
FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN...NAPOLEON...
EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
1053 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$
TWH

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 142108
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 PM CDT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN BREEZY
AT 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT.

TRAVELERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD
USE CAUTION.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-150300-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080415T0300Z/
FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN...NAPOLEON...
EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
408 PM CDT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$
TWH

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 150215
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 PM CDT MON APR 14 2008

...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...

.THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-150315-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080415T0300Z/
FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN...NAPOLEON...
EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
915 PM CDT MON APR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 

$$

NH/JWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT/BKN CIRRUS TOPPING CREST OF
RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING ALONG A LINE FROM NW
WYOMING...TO NW NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO NE MANITOBA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
PROGRESS EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TUE. 00Z GFS H3-H2 LAYER RH
CAPTURES THE CIRRUS WELL AND MAINTAINS IT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
THE TOTAL FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TODAY HINGES ON ONE FACT...IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OPAQUE THEN THAT WILL INHIBIT FULL MIXING AND WILL
BUST MANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TODAY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN
TRANSPARENT...THEN FORECAST WILL VERIFY. TOUGH DECISION BASED UPON
MODEL DATA AND CURRENT MSAS DATA/SATELLITE ANALYSIS. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF CIRRUS ON TOP OF KBIS AND MOON IS STILL
VISIBLE...ALTHOUGH DIMLY AT TIMES. WILL COUNT ON ENOUGH SUNSHINE
FILTERING THROUGH TO ALLOW FULL MIXING AT THIS TIME. WILL PAINT
GRIDS P/CLDY OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES.

SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC TO H85
EVOLVING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFT/EVE OVER. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE TEENS TODAY...THUS HAVE UPGRADED
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. PLEASE SEE
BISRFWBIS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. ALSO WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE FIRE DANGER HASNT REACHED
CRITICAL YET MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW RECEIVED LAST WEEK. WINDS WILL
STILL BECOME GUSTY AND SUSPECT THINGS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY
AFTER TODAYS EVENT.

A MILD NIGHT AHEAD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
AROUND 00Z FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES (KBIS)...AND AROUND 06Z FOR THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES (KJMS). THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FROM
BISMARCK EAST TO JAMESTOWN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BETWEEN
THE TWO CITIES AND FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
CORNER NORTHEAST TO RUGBY. NAM AND GFS SHOW A DISTINCT BAND OF HEAVY
QPF (0.30-0.50) ALONG THIS TRACK. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO CHC/LIKELY. COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON WEDS. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE
CONSISTENCY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF FOR TRENDS AND TIMING.  BUMPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER
BEHIND DEPARTING SYTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM AT END OF
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALREADY SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS AND WILL BOOST WINDS SOME IN
NEW ISSUE OF TAFS.
&&

FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
MPH FROM AROUND MINOT SOUTH TO BISMARCK AND EAST TO JAMESTOWN. SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON WEST OF BISMARCK...FROM
WILLISTON SOUTH TO DICKINSON. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BECOME
CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON FALLING INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS PROMPTED
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE
SEE BISRFWBIS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. ON TUESDAY IT APPEARS RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN AND ALL
AREAS SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THIS AREA DURING THE
DAY AND THUS THE WARMEST TEMPS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL COMMENCE
HERE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ELEVATED INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-
040>046.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

KS/HW