Wind Advisory 19, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 131516
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA LATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO WESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. STRONG WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE WEST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.

PEOPLE TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY SHOULD USE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH AND SOUTH ROADS.

NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-132330-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-080614T0000Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
HAZEN...CENTER...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...BISMARCK...
STEELE...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...
HETTINGER...FORT YATES...LINTON...NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...
OAKES
1016 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008 /916 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

HW

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 132031
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...WIND ADVISORY THIS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.

PEOPLE TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY SHOULD USE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH AND SOUTH ROADS.

NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-140000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-080614T0000Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
HAZEN...CENTER...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...BISMARCK...
STEELE...JAMESTOWN...MARMARTH...MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...
HETTINGER...FORT YATES...LINTON...NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...
OAKES
331 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008 /231 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THOUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$
KJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS WINDS. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW CENTER JUST
NORTH OF PEMBINA WITH WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 30 TO NEAR
40 MPH OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD TO JAMESTOWN AREA THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST H850 WINDS ARE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...WITH 50 KNOTS AT MIDNIGHT - 06Z - AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT
18Z. THE UPPER JET AT H250 ROUNDS THE STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LOW ON
THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE...SO OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM THE SURFACE
OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
STRENGTH DURING THE DAYTIME. AS SOON AS DECOUPLING STARTS WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALF
OF COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...BEST CHANCE IS NEAREST THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AS A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

MODELS DIFFER ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE
GFS SHUNTS THIS ENERGY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND CLIPPING THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE BUILDING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FEW CHANGES IN THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. MAIN PROBLEM
WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE DRY OF THE TWO DAYS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER AND
PROPAGATING EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHERN EDGE ONLY BRUSHES OUR
SOUTHWEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL NOT ADD
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOB ARE QUICKER TO
KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A SHORTWAVE AND BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
KEEPS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND IS THUS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE
CONSENSUS AND KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. VERY FEW CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHER MANITOBA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THE
SYSTEM...PRODUCING AREAS MVFR CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO TODAY...CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING. BEST BET FOR SHOWERS TO DAY
FROM MOT-JMS...WILL ALSO MENTION VCTY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
DIK ISN AND BIS. EXPECT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN
TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

JV/TWH