Tornado Warning 50, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 020303
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

NDC025-020330-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080802T0330Z/
DUNN ND-
902 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTY...

AT 857 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARSHALL...OR 30 
MILES NORTHEAST OF DICKINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 23 MPH. THIS IN 
ADDITION TO A TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTY AT 920 PM MDT

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM MDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4701 10248 4723 10250 4728 10241 4704 10215
      4703 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 319DEG 20KT 4718 10233

$$
PJA

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 020316
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

NDC025-020326-
/O.CAN.KBIS.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080802T0330Z/
DUNN ND-
916 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE ROTATION HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF 
A TORNADO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS 
STORM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...1000 PM MDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM MDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4701 10248 4723 10250 4728 10241 4704 10215
      4703 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 319DEG 20KT 4712 10226

$$
PJA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

BROAD LEE TROUGHING/LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
BENEATH MODEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THIS EVENING. DESPITE
HIGH CLOUD BASES...EXPECT THAT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IS
GOOD...BUT THE PRESENCE OF CAPPING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THEN...LOW-LEVEL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THERMAL PROFILES AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS
MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...GIVEN
THAT LOW BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL
STRETCHING OF AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT NOT BEFORE VERY STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO MID AND UPPER 90S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WEST...COLD AIR
ADVECTING NORTHERLIES SHOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER
90S.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON MIXING AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ERODE
THE CAP IN SOME AREAS. STRONGLY SHEARED HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN THE CONCERN WITH HIGH STORM BASES.

ASSORTED MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES PASSING OVER NORTH DAKOTA JUSTIFY A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WHILE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MAY GET A
SHOT OF VORT ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW ON THE WEST SIDE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH REASON TO PUT EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE
WEST...THE BROAD LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WILL
AID IN BRINGING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DOWN TO BETWEEN 13 AND 18 PERCENT. THIS IS DESPITE THE MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE ABOVE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR IN THE FORM OF EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH...SHOULD A FIRE IGNITE. CONSEQUENTLY...A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 10 PM CDT/9 PM MDT.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN WITH THE
LOW. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA. LESS DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

SCHECK/JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051-
021030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-HETTINGER-GRANT-ADAMS-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
525 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008 /425 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD AND POSSIBLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY IF
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS. PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

NDZ017-031-032-040-043-021030-
MCKENZIE-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-BOWMAN-
525 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008 /425 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. AN INTENSIFYING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             8 N MAKOTI              48.08N 101.81W
08/01/2008  M1.50 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             14 NW HALLIDAY          47.50N 102.55W
08/01/2008  M1.75 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL,HAILING FOR 15 MINUTES AND
            ON GOING.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.23N 101.30W
08/01/2008  M0.88 INCH       WARD               ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL AT KXMC STUDIO

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.23N 101.30W
08/01/2008  M1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            IN VICINITY OF THE DAKOTA SQUARE MALL, RELAYED BY THE
            MEDIA.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             SURREY                  48.24N 101.13W
08/01/2008  M0.88 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HAIL             HALLIDAY                47.35N 102.34W
08/01/2008  M1.00 INCH       DUNN               ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL ON GOING AND HAS BEEN FOR 20 MINUTES.

&&

VROLLER