Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND HAVE MOVED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. H850 AND H925 ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH IS BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO LOW LEVELS IN
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING MOST FAVORABLE AREA
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S...EXPECT
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCALES.

FOR THURSDAY...LINGERING PRECIP IN EASTERN COUNTIES POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND
EXPECT A CLEAR SKY THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH MOVING IN FROM WESTERN CANADA. NORTH DAKOTA IS UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE WEST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A
BIT FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WHOLE
FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS WESTERN SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS AND THERE IS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH VORT
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED
UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...EFFECTIVELY SHUNNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TILL LATER IN THE WEEK. THUS WILL CONTINUE
OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HARD TO
TIME AND PLACE EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS SLIDE ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN ND BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. AT
THIS TIME ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WILL SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...WITH SHORT DURATION MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS IN THE
HEAVIER TSRA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JV/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
426 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

NDZ017-031-032-040-043-310930-
MCKENZIE-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-BOWMAN-
426 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008 /326 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
AFTERNOON CAPES AND A WEAK CAP INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE HIGH
AND VERY HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT CAUTION SHOULD BE USED TO PREVENT
GRASSLAND FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH
CATEGORIES ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GUSTY WINDS COULD APPROACH RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NDZ001>003-009>011-018>021-033>036-041-042-044>048-050-051-310930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-HETTINGER-GRANT-ADAMS-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
426 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008 /326 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-037-310930-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-STUTSMAN-
426 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
700 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             9 N HAZEN               47.43N 101.62W
07/30/2008  E0.88 INCH       MERCER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH

&&

VJENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE HAZEN BAY RECREATI 47.50N 101.61W
07/30/2008  E60 MPH          MERCER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANIED BY PEA SIZED HAIL AND
            VERY HEAVY RAIN.

0659 PM     HAIL             17 W GARRISON           47.65N 101.78W
07/30/2008  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

CH/VJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
721 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW COLEHARBOR         47.57N 101.27W
07/30/2008  E60 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WERE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
            HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

CH/VJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
820 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             20 SW SURREY            48.03N 101.44W
07/30/2008  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL...RELAYED BY
            BROADCAST MEDIA.

0741 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BENEDICT            47.77N 101.08W
07/30/2008  E60 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

&&

CH/VJ