Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MONTANA SINCE
MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
EAST AT ABOUT 25 KTS AND SHOULD BE IN WESTERN ND AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE WEST
WHICH LOOKS GOOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN IN THAT THEY BRING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO
AID IN LIFTING TO OVERCOME ANY AFTERNOON CAPPING ALONG WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG CAPE AND WEAK CIN ACROSS THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS YESTERDAY WERE A LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH A LACK OF
LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
TREND AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN PART BECAUSE A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT MAY EXTEND EAST/WEST
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND EXPECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP/TSTMS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WHERE
TSTMS COLD DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BROAD FEATURES WITH THE
USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SMALLER IMPULSES.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR TIMING.

WESTERLIES REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH BROAD RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS...DISPLACED AT TIMES BY STRONGER
SHORTWAVES IN FLOW. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT
CAPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE TO NORTHWESTERN
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z TAF ISSUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-290930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008 /320 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS IS POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE WITH HIGH CAPES AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...A
STATIONARY FRONT IN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHERE IT IS
LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TRAIN
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION
INCREASED SHEAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
707 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TSTM WND GST     WILLISTON               48.16N 103.63W
07/28/2008  M66 MPH          WILLIAMS           ND   ASOS

&&

SWICHE