Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
127 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PORTION OF STATE. WRF
REFLECTIVITY VERIFYING QUITE WELL ATTM AND WILL USE COMBINATION OF
NAM PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR POPS WHILE MOSTLY USED GFS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION APPROACHING NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE BORDER BEFORE 2
PM CDT. SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA NORTH-NORTHWEST
INTO SASKATCHEWAN WITH MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST PUSHING SURFACE TROUGH EAST ALONG BORDER WITH
CONVECTION VECTOR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST.

SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REACH OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
FOR A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE LINE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH REACHING THE MONTANA AND DAKOTAS BORDER LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURE REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT INTO
CANADA. WITH A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING AFTERWARD.
WILL KEY IN ON THE FIRST SYSTEM WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP. WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL
PRECIP LATE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST INTO MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. IN ADDITION CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA HAVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL CELINGS
AND ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 MI VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN. THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE NORTH WITH TIME...BUT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS COULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
449 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-201000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
449 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008 /349 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     HAIL             24 NW WILLISTON         48.41N 104.00W
07/19/2008  E1.75 INCH       WILLIAMS           ND   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

LLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             15 NW WILLISTON         48.32N 103.86W
07/19/2008  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMS           ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL 1 INCH RELAYED THROUGH MEDIA

0240 PM     HAIL             WILLISTON               48.16N 103.63W
07/19/2008  M0.88 INCH       WILLIAMS           ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

LLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             N KEENE                 47.93N 102.95W
07/19/2008  M1.00 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

LLP

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