Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 16, 2008Dunn County, Mercer County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2008, 1:34 AM MDT for Dunn County, Mercer County, North Dakota. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2008, 1:34 AM MDT (07:34 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2008, 2:30 AM MDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Dunn County, ND, Mercer County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 28 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -207 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2582 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 255 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 2:30 PM MDT, 11 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:30 PM MDT, 11 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN ND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ND NORTHEAST ND MAY BE H8-H7 FRONTAL ZONE LIFT. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SEEN MOVING THROUGH MONTANA WILL GENERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL ND. A LITTLE DIFFICULT ION TIMING AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN FROM AN EXTENSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED FROM
MONTANA SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. SO WILL NEED TO
BROADBRUSH POPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE STATE. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER
CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
SYSTEM STILL BASICALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL AGAIN
SET UP THE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...THEN THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. WENT SOLELY WITH THE ECMWF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
HPC CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THE GFS HAVING LITTLE MERIT WITH THE TRACK
OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH EJECTS OUT FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER/TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WHILE THE GFS HAS A PATH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...WHICH MEANS IT IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. HENCE
FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THE
RESULT WILL BE FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS
AN INCREASED PROBABILITY IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKING CONTROL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS/VISIBLITIES BUT
ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AERODROMES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES (KISN/KMOT) ARE NOT EXCLUDED...BUT THE BETTER THREAT WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA/KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 4:41 AM MDT, 20 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-161045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
541 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 /441 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THEN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 7:56 PM MDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 6:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, McIntosh	41 min
Jul 15, 7:07 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton, Sioux	53 min
Jul 16, 3:48 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder	57 min
Jul 16, 4:09 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Stutsman	66 min
Jul 16, 4:51 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	LaMoure, Logan	54 min
Jul 16, 5:18 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Stutsman	19 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.