Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND SOME
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE FROM SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK TO JUST
EAST OF MINOT. THIS CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE WESTERLIES STAY OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND PASSING UPPER LOWS IN CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ACTIVITY TO OUR REGION THIS WORK
WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST WAVES COME THROUGH. HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ON OTHER DAYS ALSO.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE TREND ALOFT IS FOR ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING
THROUGH.  EACH SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT
TIMING WILL BE A PROBLEM.  CONSEQUENTLY...WILL HAVE ON AND OFF AGAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDENS...80 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINOT...ALONG A
CURVE THROUGH HARVEY...70 MILES EAST OF MINOT...TO NEAR ELGIN...50
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK.  THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAVE BROUGHT DRIER AIR...AND LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP ALTHOUGH
SMALL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/RL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
439 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-080945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
439 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008 /339 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-080945-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
439 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE.

KS