Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA WITH SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING SHOWING WEAKENING CAP WITH 1500 TO 2000 CAPE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW K INDEX ON THE 35 TO 40 RANGE SUGGESTING
HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. HAVE FOCUSED ON CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER SEVERE THREAT HAS PASSED LATER
TONIGHT...PATH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HAVE SPECIFIED 25 TO 35 MPH AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE H850 JET (50-60 KTS ON NAM) MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
EVENTUALLY. BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CAP ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER FOR SATURDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SLIGHT
RECOVERY SUNDAY BUT REMAINING COOL EAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR H5 HEIGHTS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AROUND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL GIVE DRY/WARM WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CANADIAN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE TUESDAY...AND REMAINS THIS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...A SFC LOW PRESSURE/FRONT SETS UP OVER NEAR
OR ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER EASTER MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED...THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO 45KT...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALL AERODROMES HAVE A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL
SET UP ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-271030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
524 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008 /424 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BISMARCK FOR FURTHER UPDATES...AND FOR LIKELY
WATCHES AND WARNINGS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
603 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             3 E HAZEN               47.30N 101.56W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             ND   PUBLIC

&&

TMCARTHUR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             7 NW WASHBURN           47.36N 101.13W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

&&

TMCARTHUR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 E BALTA              48.17N 99.82W
06/26/2008                   BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            DID NOT TOUCH GROUND WENT BACK INTO CLOUDS

&&

TMCARTHUR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>