Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 291626
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1126 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FOR VERY HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
DORMANT VEGETATION...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WARNED AREA.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT
...THESE STRONG WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY VEGETATION
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH TODAY.

PLEASE INFORM THE APPROPRIATE FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

NDZ034-035-042-045-046-300030-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080330T0300Z/
MORTON-BURLEIGH-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-
1126 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008 /1026 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

DRY GRASSLAND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE
THE FIRE DANGER TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 292336
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008


NDZ034-035-042-045-046-300045-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080330T0300Z/
MORTON-BURLEIGH-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-
636 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008 /536 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN RISING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING SLOWLY. IN ADDITION A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA HAVE MOISTENED THE GRASSLANDS AND PASTURES. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON TWO
STORM SYSTEMS...THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THE
SECOND IMPACTING THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. USED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND BUT LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS POSITIONED IN FAR WESTERN
MONTANA...WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAME GENERAL
VICINITY. INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA ATTM ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. SFC WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC
LOW OFF TO OUR WEST INTENSIFIES. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH FOG LIFTING AS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT OVERHEAD.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF
THIS MORNING BESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED. COULD SEE UP TO
AROUND 2 MAYBE 3 INCHES OF SNOW HERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
TRIES TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT WAA PRECIP OVER MY EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE SO SCALED BACK THERE. REMAINDER OF THE CWA
(SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL) REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT THIS MORNING.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES MY CENTRAL COUNTIES. GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE UPPED POPS HERE. MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER AS WELL SO INSERTED ISOLD T FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL...COULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES. THUS WILL ISSUE A SNOW
ADVISORY ACROSS MY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND KEEP IT THROUGH 06Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR WRAP AROUND SNOW THIS EVENING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER MY EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FROPA...AS WILL AS
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.
AFTER 06Z SNOW STARTS TO WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY ARE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CREATE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADV LEVELS HERE AS NOT A VERY
SUPPORTIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT OR LINKAGE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THIS TIME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. WINDS WILL STILL BE
ON THE BREEZY SIDE HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL ALSO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE BELOW).

SUNDAY REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. THIS IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND SEASONABLE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
PROJECTION. FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD THE MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY
QUIESCENT WEATHER WITH NO MAJOR SPRING STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TO NEAR WINNEPEG BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS A COMPLEX SITUATION WHICH WILL PROMOTE A VERY
WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER OVER THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A
LIFTING WARM FRONT WE WILL HAVE LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG TO ITS
NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...THEN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LATER WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
THE BEST WEATHER WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...IN THE WARMER AND DRIER PART
OF THE LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE
HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED (HENCE A WIND ADV) ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES 25 TO 30 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH WEATHER
CRITERIA IS MARGINAL...GIVEN THE VERY DRY GRASSLANDS THINK IT IS
PRUDENT TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES. DAYSHIFT CAN REEVALUATE AND CANCEL IF NEEDED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ019>021-034-042-045.

SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005.

&&

NH/RSL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-292100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
352 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008 /252 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY...EXITING INTO
MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A POTPOURRI OF WEATHER TO DEVELOP SATURDAY. SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A COMBINATION
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FORECAST AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH CAN BE ANTICIPATED FROM BISMARCK
TO JAMESTOWN...AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A MENTION OF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER THREAT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IF THE ACTUAL TRACK COMES CLOSE TO WHAT
THE FORECAST SHOWS NOW. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD BE
CENTERED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BORDERING SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS