Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 281246
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
750 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS..LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES..AND DRY GRASSLANDS... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON/EVENING 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 PERCENT HAS PROMPTED 
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE WIND SPEED 
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR A TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING...THE 
AVAILABILITY OF VERY DRY FUEL IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AREAS THAT 
HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY 
WILDFIRES THAT FORM EXPLOSIVE IN NATURE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

ACCORDING TO THE MONDAY MORNING BISMARCK SOUNDING...THERE IS A STEEP 
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL BREAK WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHES 35F. 
AT THAT POINT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MIXED UP TO 1600 FEET.  LATER 
IN THE DAY...A SECOND INVERSION WILL BREAK AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 
6000 FEET WILL OCCUR.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-281715-
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.W.0015.080428T1800Z-080429T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.A.0006.080429T1800Z-080430T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
407 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008 /307 AM MDT MON APR 28 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 PERCENT HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER RED 
FLAG WARNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE WIND SPEED FORECASTS 
ARE MARGINAL FOR A TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING...THE AVAILABILITY OF 
VERY DRY FUEL IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY 
SKIPPED BY SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY WILDFIRES THAT FORM 
EXPLOSIVE IN NATURE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR
WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

NDZ003-011-019>021-034-042-045-281715-
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.W.0015.080428T1800Z-080429T0200Z/
RENVILLE-WARD-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-MORTON-GRANT-SIOUX-
407 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008 /307 AM MDT MON APR 28 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING. 

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 PERCENT HAS PROMPTED
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE WIND
SPEED FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR A TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING...THE
AVAILABILITY OF VERY DRY FUEL IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AREAS THAT
HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY
WILDFIRES THAT FORM EXPLOSIVE IN NATURE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JWS/AYD

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 281654
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1154 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS..LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES..AND DRY GRASSLANDS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM FT YATES TO MANDAN TO
WASHBURN TO MINOT...HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20
PERCENT WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.  WHILE WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR A TYPICAL RED
FLAG WARNING...THE AVAILABILITY OF VERY DRY FUEL IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY SPRING
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY WILDFIRES THAT FORM EXPLOSIVE IN
NATURE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

ACCORDING TO THE MONDAY MORNING BISMARCK SOUNDING...THERE IS A
STEEP INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL BREAK WHEN THE TEMPERATURE
REACHES 35F. AT THAT POINT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MIXED UP TO
1600 FEET.  LATER IN THE DAY...A SECOND INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
MIXING UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET WILL OCCUR.

NDZ003-011-019>021-034-042-045-281800-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0015.080428T1800Z-080429T0200Z/
RENVILLE-WARD-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-MORTON-GRANT-SIOUX-
1154 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008 /1054 AM MDT MON APR 28 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS. THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM FT YATES TO MANDAN TO
WASHBURN TO MINOT...HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-290100-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0015.080428T1800Z-080429T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.A.0006.080429T1800Z-080430T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
1154 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008 /1054 AM MDT MON APR 28 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 PERCENT HAS PROMPTED
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE WIND
SPEED FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR A TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING...THE
AVAILABILITY OF VERY DRY FUEL IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AREAS THAT
HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY
WILDFIRES THAT FORM EXPLOSIVE IN NATURE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 282039
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS..LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES..AND DRY GRASSLANDS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS WERE CREATING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL
FOR A TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING...THE AVAILABILITY OF VERY DRY FUEL
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY
SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY WILDFIRES THAT FORM EXPLOSIVE
IN NATURE. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES SOUTH TO STARK AND ADAMS COUNTIES AND WEST TO
THE MONTANA BORDER. THIS INCLUDES STANLEY AND WILLISTON...
DICKINSON AND BEACH...AND HETTINGER AND BOWMAN.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO
DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.


NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-290445-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-080429T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.A.0006.080429T1800Z-080430T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
339 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008 /239 PM MDT MON APR 28 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS WERE CREATING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL
FOR A TYPICAL RED FLAG WARNING...THE AVAILABILITY OF VERY DRY FUEL
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY
SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY WILDFIRES THAT FORM EXPLOSIVE
IN NATURE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

JV

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 290202
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING HAS EXPIRED...

.A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING HAS EXPIRED. THE WINDS HAVE
SLOWLY DIMINISHED AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-291015-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-080429T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.A.0006.080429T1800Z-080430T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
902 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008 /802 PM MDT MON APR 28 2008/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY EVENING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES..STRONG WINDS..DRY
GRASSLANDS..AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

ABELING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHORT TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON
REASONING FOR RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ON TUESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PROVIDE FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AFFECT INSOLATION AND MIXING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...+12C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...WITH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO +2C.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON....ALLOWING FOR THE COMMENCEMENT OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ENHANCING THE WARMING POTENTIAL.
SURFACE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW AS THE GULF WILL NOT OPEN
UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN
TO PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES
WILL CREATE A DEEP...AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. YET...LACK OF
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE CHANCES OF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...8C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
NOSE OF A 250MB JET SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY
EVENING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PUSH 850MB
DEWPOINTS TO +6 C. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MARGINAL HAIL AND DRY LIGHTNING ABOVE A
MOISTURE STARVED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID-DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
REGIME WITHIN THE THETA-E RIDGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 40KTS AT 850MB TO MIX. CONVECTION MAY
BECOME SURFACE BASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING LI VALUES OF -1C TO -3C AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ABILITY TO BREAK LOW
LEVEL CAP...AS CONVECTION MAY HAVE TO WAIT TOWARDS EVENING FOR
COOLING AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT.

AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE SUB
CLOUD BASE LAYER BECOMES SATURATED.

AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG...LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLORADO LOW ENSUES
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
STATEWIDE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS A DIFFICULT ONE THANKS TO A
DEEP CYCLONE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEYS LATER THIS WEEK.  UPDATED GRIDS ARE QUITE DEPENDENT ON THE
RATHER PERSISTENT GFS BEING CORRECT...SINCE THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ARE ALSO INSISTENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT
SAID...CONVERSATIONS WITH NCEP/HPC HAVE REVEALED A RECENT SOUTHWARD
BIAS WITHIN THE ECMWF.  MOREOVER...THE SURFACE LOWTRACK OF RECENT
ECMWF RUNS IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLE
ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.

THE RESULTING FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE VERTICALLY
STACKED CYCLONE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ENDING SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.  THE
06 UTC GFS SOLUTION ACTUALLY WRAPS SEVERAL MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE DEEP MIDDLE LEVEL VORTEX...AS THE CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT PUMPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TO KEEP MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUFFICIENT.

SINCE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK...HAVE ELECTED NOT
TO INCREASE POPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE GRIDS.  STILL...THERE
IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE PRESENTS ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE 00 UTC
GFS FAVORED SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM BISMARCK
AND MINOT WEST INTO MONTANA.  IF THE CORRESPONDING 00 UTC GFS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VERIFIED THERE WOULD BE OVER TWO FEET OF SNOW
IN BISMARCK BY SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY MAY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO VERIFY
WELL...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
STILL FOUR DAYS OUT.  STILL...WILL WATCH THE SITUATION CAREFULLY AS
THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD DO WONDERS FOR FARMERS WHILE REDUCING FIRE
CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST.  LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED
PRECPITATION IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 PERCENT HAS PROMPTED ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  WHILE METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ARE MARGINAL...THE AVAILABILITY OF DRY FUEL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY SKIPPED BY SPRING PRECIPITATION JUSTIFIES THE
WARNING.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY.  COLLABORATION WITH THE NCEP/STORM PREDICTION CENTER FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTER HAS ALSO LED TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HIGHLIGHTED
AS CRITICAL BY NCEP FOR TUESDAY.

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA IS FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY THAN THE RED
FLAG WARNING ON MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO ANTICIPATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FIRING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION AND LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>045.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

AYD/JWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
502 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-281015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
502 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045-281015-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
502 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2008 /402 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT AND CONTINUED DRY GRASSLAND
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NH