Frost Advisory 1, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TODAY AS NORTH DAKOTA LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. H250
NORTHWESTERLY JET WILL EXTEND FROM MANITOBA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH 130 KNOTS. H850 WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS
PROGGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY...BUT WINDS MAY NOT
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WILLISTON TO BISMARCK. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE
STRONGER WINDS THAN WILLISTON OR BISMARCK. HAVE DECIDED A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN AREA...THEN ALSO IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS MATCHES WELL AGAINST AN ADVISORY IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND AGAINST THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES.

ON SUNDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA TOWARDS LAKE
WINNIPEG. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER A TAD TO
REFLECT THIS FEATURE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURES
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN STORY IN EXTENDED GRIDS IS SLOW TRANSITION FROM STRONG NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGING TO DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
END OF EXTENDED. SOME DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
THE GENERAL TREND IS EVIDENT ON EC...GFS AND GEM.

VERY UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH EVOLVES...SOME DAYS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL.
ADDED POPS AGAIN TO NEW DAY 8.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS WIND. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 35 KTS...WHILE GUIDANCE WEAKER IN THE 20 TO
25 KNOW RANGE...WILL USE GUIDANCE AND MAKE SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 18 TO 22 PERCENT ARE FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
YESTERDAY. WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING.

FIRE MANAGERS SENT AN UPDATE OF PERCENT GREEN VALUES ACROSS THE
STATE AND HAVE RAISED THE PERCENT GREEN VALUES IN ALL AREAS. THE
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REFLECTS THIS CHANGE...SINCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...BUT THE
FIRE DANGER INDEX TODAY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY FOR
THE SAME LOCALE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025-
031>033-036-037-040-041-043-044-047-048-050-051.

&&

JV/HW

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