Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED A NEUTRAL TILT IN RESPONSE TO AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED OVER MY NORTHWESTERN ZONES THAT
HAS DUG INTO THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
FEATURED SOME STRONG CELLS...NONE OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SEVERE UP TO
THIS POINT. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS OVER NEPA. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
MY NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION EARLY THIS EVENING LIMITS INSTABILITY...AND THE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...ENDING UPPER
SUPPORT FOR LIFT. GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...AND GOOD AMOUNTS
OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FEW SHRA TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY UP NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW.
ALSO...EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER CNY. SOMEWHAT OF A RAW NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD POOL GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT PRETTY MUCH ANY SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE GOOD FOR
SOME SCT SHRA. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MINIMAL WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A LITTLE...AND THE NAM PRETTY MUCH NIL. SO...HAVE
MENTIONED A SCHC OF A TSRA...BUT SVR NOT EXPECTED AND EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHRA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH T850 ONLY AROUND +11-12C. THIS...COMBINED
WITH NOT QUITE FULL SUN SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 60...AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS GIVEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER CNY.

MONDAY LOOKS MUCH BETTER AS TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMN WARM AND A
WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND FEATURE LESS CLOUDINESS. T850 WILL ONLY
RISE TO +12-13C SO HIGHS STILL WON/T WARM MUCH...ONLY TO 75-80.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...AND WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER...IN THE LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR BEGINS STREAMING IN ALOFT AS A WARM
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO PULL IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE H85/H7 RIDGES CRESTING OVERHEAD AND THEN PULLING
EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE. CAN/T RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE WEST AS DEEPER LIFT ARRIVES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE NE U.S. TROF
BY LATE WEEK...WITH POS PNA PTRN MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON.
S/WVS ROTATING THRU THIS BUCKLING FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTNL TO
SET OFF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AT ANY TIME...BUT BEST CHCS
ATTM APPEAR TO BE WITH STRONGER WAVES PROGGED FOR TUES NGT/WED AND
AGAIN ON FRI. TEMPS WILL AVG A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS PD. HPC
GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEEKS WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTN...TSRA MAINLY CNTRL AND NRN NY AFFECTING RME/SYR/ITH
WTIH MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THRU THE
AFTN. LATER TNGT, MOIST AND COOLER NNW FLOW DVLPS WITH MDLS SHOWING
SATURATION OF LOWEST LVLS AT MOST SITES AFTER 06Z. NOTED LOW CLDS
AND CIGS IN THE 0.5-1K FT RNGT EARLIER THIS MRNG OVER PORTIONS OF
MI, AND BELIEVE THIS POTNL EXITS TNGT ACRS THE BGM CWA...AIDED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN TIER. MVFR FCST FOR MOST SITES AFTER
06Z....WITH PSBLTY OF IFR AT BGM/ITH AND RME TWDS DAYBREAK. MOST
SITES SHUD BREAK OUT TO VFR BY LATE SUN MRNG. WINDS LGT AND GNRLY
OUT OF THE NW THRU TNGT...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON SUN
MRNG.

SUN NGT THRU TUES...VFR BUT POTNL FOR DENSE EARLY MRNG VLY FOG AT
ELM.

TUES NGT/WED...POTNL FOR SCT MVFR IN TSRA.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMA
NEAR TERM...JMA
SHORT TERM...JMA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

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