Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
547 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
AND BRING WITH IT VERY GUSTY WINDS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
WE UPDATED TIMING OF FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE ARRIVAL BY
EXTRAPOLATING RADAR DATA. PLENTY OF LIGHTNING IN THIS LINE, THOUGH
I EXPECT THIS WILL DECREASE AWAY FROM THE LAKE CONVERGENCE. STILL,
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SEVERE WARNING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE CELL WITH
A CORE OFF THE SURFACE.

STRONG PRESSURE RISES/COUPLET MOVES UP THE LAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING, BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
FROM THE LAKE PLAIN UP THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS FAST AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TODAY, IT THEN ROCKETS OUT OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME WEAK
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
FORCING SIMPLY ISNT THERE FOR ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH ONCE WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET.

ONE GOOD SIGN WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT IS THAT QPF SHOULD BE
CONTAINED TO A HALF INCH OR LESS...PERHAPS MUCH LESS. THIS WILL
HELP THE RIVER/STREAM SITUATION, AND BETTER PREPARE US FOR OUR
NEXT EVENT.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PULLS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY,
WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO NY/PA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE FAST MOVING,
SO HOPEFULLY BETWEEN BOTH EVENTS OUR HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

DUE TO ACTIVE WX WE DEFAULTED TO THE GFS FOR THE XTNDD PD. AFTER
THE PSSG OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM, SOME WEAK LES PSBL. MORE SIG SYSTEM
XPCTD TO APRCH SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
OUR TERMINALS APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS
DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE AND AREAL EXTENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MENTION IN TAF. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY.

S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT W/SW WINDS OF 20-30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

FOR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD... STRONG WINDS CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IS EXPECTED THURS NITE-FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
GTLKS. IFR PROBABLE. STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FOR SYR-RME...AND VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PER
COORD WITH WFO ALY. SNOWMELT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL COULD BRING THE
MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. NOT CONCERNED
ABOUT FLOODING ELSEWHERE. NOHRS WEBSITE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE SNOW
IS GONE IN THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA...ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS HAVE SOME SNOW COVER. THIS SNOW IS RAPIDLY MELTING AND
THERE ARE RISES ON TIOUGHNOG AND CHENANGO RIVERS...BUT BASED ON
LATEST RFC GUIDC RIVERS WILL REMAIN BLO FS. THERE IS MORE SNOWPACK
IN THE CATSKILLS...BUT RFC SUGGESTS RISES BUT NO FLOODING. FRONT
COMES THRU VERY FAST TONIGHT/ERLY WEDNESDAY SO NO EXTENDED PD OF
HVY RAIN...PROBABLY A QUICK 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL TIME JANUARY RECORDS TIED AT ALL THREE FIRST ORDER SITES.

KSYR...JAN RECORD = 70 IN 1950 (BACK TO 1902)... MAX 70
KBGM...JAN RECORD = 63 IN 1998... MAX 63
KAVP...JAN RECORD = 67 IN 1967... MAX 67

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-037.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...DJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-100830-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-
TOMPKINS-MADISON-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
321 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND MEASUREMENTS AND RAINFALL
TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NYZ009-037-100830-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
321 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND MEASUREMENTS AND RAINFALL
TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.