Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL PASS THE RGN TNGT WITH SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS WILL BE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTNL OF ISOLD STRONG STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NE PA AND S CNTRL
NY...AND ALSO LCLY +RA (WHICH IS THE GREATER CONCERN)....BUT XPCT FEW
(IF ANY) SIG PRBLMS IN THE SHORT TERM. MDLS SUGGEST A WEAK S/WV
OVER SW PA WILL LIFT NE INTO OUR FCST AREA THIS EVNG...PSBLY
ENHANCING QPF OVER NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS...BUT ALL IN ALL
THIS A MUCH APPRECIATED RAINFALL. EXTRAP GETS BACKEDGE OF PCPN
INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER LATE THIS AFTN...AND SHUD
CLEAR SE ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. MAY SEE SOME FOG LATER TNGT BUT
AM NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE THICK OR WDSPRD ENUF TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN THE FCST...EVNG SHIFT CAN RE- ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN TROF AXIS PASSES TMRW AFTN AND PROFILES SUGGEST POTNL FOR THE
DVLPMNT OF ISOLD LOW TOPPED -SHRA...SPCLY NRN SITES. WENT WITH 20
POPS FOR THAT PD BUT WILL KEEP ZONES DRY...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF
NEEDED. OTRW PLEASANT WX INTO MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES TO
OUR NORTH. HPC PROGS FIT THIS IDEA BEST TO THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
SUITE...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR GUIDANCE WITH SOME MODIFICATION...
ESPLY TO DAYS 6-7. THINK THIS SHOULD BE A GENERALLY BENIGN
PATTERN...FEATURING MAINLY DRY AND WARM SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING MINOR
SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION MARKS DURING THIS TIME...AS WELL
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES INTO
CNY/NEPA NEXT WEEKEND. THESE SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES BEING OFFERED UP BY THE HPC PROGS
FOR NEXT SAT-SUN. WILL LOWER THESE NUMBERS BY 10-20 PCT BUT KEEP
THEM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TO ILLUSTRATE AT LEAST A LITTLE BETTER CHC
THAN NORMAL.

TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAYS PER
925-850 MB THERMAL FIELDS...SO HAVE NUDGED THE HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS
UP JUST A BIT THURS-FRI TO SUGGEST A SHOT AT 90 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBDD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT MVFR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS
WITHIN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CIGS WILL GRDLY
RETURN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN TEND TO SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOAKING RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN COOLING ATMOSPHERE.
THIS MAY OCCUR JUST AFTER SKIES CLEAR DURG THE LATE EVENING
/03Z-07Z/...THEN MODELS SHOW SOME MIXYNESS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LOWERING DWPTS...SO THE LATE NIGHT HRS AFT 08Z MAY NOT BE
RESTRICTED. A RETURN TO VFR SCT CU IS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NITE THRU THURSDAY...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FG PSBL EACH
DAY...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

NYZ009-017-018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141845-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-
MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ015-016-022-141845-
YATES-SENECA-STEUBEN-
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

PAZ039-040-043-132115-
SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-WYOMING PA-
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGVILLE...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALFORD AT 445 PM EDT...
  HARFORD AND NEW MILFORD AT 450 PM EDT...
  GIBSON AT 455 PM EDT...
  JACKSON AT 500 PM EDT...
  ARARAT AT 505 PM EDT...
  THOMPSON AT 510 PM EDT...
  STARRUCA AT 515 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MSE

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