Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...COPIOUS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THE RAIN
WILL PULL EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145AM...NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE PULLING INTO THE CWA WITH ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST SEEING A GOOD DOSE OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE SEEN UPSTREAM LOCALIZED 1-3 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND SEE NO REASON FOR A FEW OF THESE TO POP UP OVER MY
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY IN PLACE AS FLOW BACKS ALOFT WHILE VERY SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
12Z NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MORNING PRECIP...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF CURRENT FFA...SO DO NOT SEE A
COMPELLING REASON TO EXPAND WEST AT THIS TIME.

CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE/SURFACE REFLECTION OVER LAKE ERIE. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN OVER THESE AREAS TRYING TO WORK INTO MY WESTERN
COUNTIES...IMPROVING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH SOME
DRYING ALOFT COULD SEE MORE TSRA DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
AND WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED SHEAR PROFILE...SVR IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

LOWERED HIGHS TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FIRST BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL MCV NOW EXITING
MY CWA WITH NEXT BATCH READY TO MOVE IN FROM PA. FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BACK AS TROUGH DEEPENS...DEVELOPING A NEUTRAL TILT BY
AFTERNOON...AND GOING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CUTS OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...PULLING AMPLE
MOISTURE TOWARDS OUR CWA. 100KT 250MB JET STREAK WILL BE SETTING
UP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY PLACING MY SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GIVEN WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING TO
AROUND 11-12KFT...EXPECT GOOD RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH WARM RAIN
PROCESSES DOMINATING.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH
SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN A GREAT SHEAR
PROFILE. EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER MY SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
THERE IS THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SUNNY BREAKS LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THESE SPOTS...THE SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY IF THE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS ARE OUT WITH UPDATED FFA COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP/CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN PA WILL
TRACK INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY, POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP TO THIS
AREA, PRIMING IT FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS DOWN THE ROAD.

WE THINK THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS GREAT LAKES TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT
AND PERSISTENT UL JET POSITION GENERATES ADDED LIFT TO NY/PA IN
FAVORED RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT. PWATS CLIMB FROM 1.00-1.10 CURRENTLY
TO 1.25-1.50 BY 0Z THURSDAY.

NEGATIVE TILTING OF TROF WILL GENERATE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
POSITION OF JET/FRONT SUGGESTS THE MOST PERSISTENT HEAVY PRECIP
WILL BE EAST OF I-81. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE EXPECTED
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMBS THE TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.

TRENDED TOWARD HPC QPF GUIDANCE, WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE (3 TO 4
INCHES BASIN AVERAGE FAR EAST) GIVEN SETUP. NAM 9-10 INCH BULLSEYE
JUST EAST OF FA IS CONCERNING, BUT LOOKS UNRELIABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BASICALLY NO CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED
PACKAGE...WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT STILL IN TACT THIS
PERIOD.

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD SLOWLY RELAX EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH COLD POOL ALOFT NEARBY.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY
(UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80)...SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PD AT MOST TERMINALS.
MODERATE TO HVY RAIN WILL AFFECT BGM/AVP AND RME THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO SHOVE EAST AFTER 06Z AT ALL SITE BUT AVP.
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT AVP THRU THUR MORNING. AFTER
RAIN CLEARS OUT EXPECT VSBYS TO DIMINISH TO MVFR/IF AS FOG SETS
IN...POSSIBLY LIFR AT ELM/BGM. TO THE WEST AT SYR/ELM/ITH...ALTHO
OUT OF THE HVY RAIN AXIS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT TERMINALS THRU
02Z OR 03Z THIS EVNG.

WINDS GNRLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ARND TO THE
SW BY 14Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL
IFR RESTRICTIONS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UL SYSTEM HANGS OVR THE REGION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-
     072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMA
NEAR TERM...JMA
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JMA/MLJ
AVIATION...PB

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