Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS La Crosse, WI

June 28, 2008Houston County, Minnesota

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 28, 2008, 12:16 PM CDT for Houston County, Minnesota. It was in force for 44 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 28, 2008, 12:16 PM CDT (17:16 UTC)
Expired: Jun 28, 2008, 1:00 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS La Crosse, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Houston County, MN

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 28, 12:16 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	Houston, MN	SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 65 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1460 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KARX 281715
SVRARX
MNC055-281800-
/O.NEW.KARX.SV.W.0080.080628T1716Z-080628T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1212 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE 
  THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL 1 MILE WEST OF HOUSTON. 
  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF         
  CALEDONIA...MOVING EAST   AT 27 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUND PRAIRIE AND HIGHWAY 44 AND SANDEN ROAD AROUND 1225 PM...
  HOKAH AROUND 1235 PM...
  LA CRESCENT AROUND 1240 PM...
  BROWNSVILLE AROUND 1245 PM...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4384 9165 4384 9154 4385 9129 4384 9128
      4379 9125 4375 9125 4375 9126 4369 9126
      4369 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 270DEG 24KT 4379 9152

$$

RABERDING

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KARX 281725
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

MNC055-281800-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-080628T1800Z/
HOUSTON MN-
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY...

AT 1225 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR MOUND PRAIRIE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF LA CRESCENT...MOVING 
EAST AT 28 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOKAH AROUND 1235 PM...
  LA CRESCENT AND BROWNSVILLE AROUND 1240 PM...

LAT...LON 4384 9165 4384 9154 4385 9129 4384 9128
      4379 9125 4375 9125 4375 9126 4369 9126
      4369 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 270DEG 24KT 4379 9143

$$

RABERDING

000 
WWUS53 KARX 281740
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

MNC055-281800-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-080628T1800Z/
HOUSTON MN-
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY...

AT 1239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOKAH...OR NEAR LA CRESCENT...
MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

LAT...LON 4370 9140 4385 9141 4385 9129 4384 9128
      4379 9125 4375 9125 4375 9126 4369 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 270DEG 24KT 4379 9129

$$

RABERDING

000 
WWUS53 KARX 281752
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

MNC055-281804-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-080628T1800Z/
HOUSTON MN-
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 100 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4370 9140 4385 9141 4385 9129 4384 9128
      4379 9125 4375 9125 4375 9126 4369 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 270DEG 24KT 4379 9117

$$

RABERDING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 28, 2:45 AM CDT, 9 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 28, 2:45 AM CDT, 9 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW NEAR MANITOBA/MINNESOTA
BORDER...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN WI INTO NORTHWEST
IL. IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON WESTERLY WINDS
AS EVIDENCED BY UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION SITUATED NEAR DAKOTAS BORDER. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

28.00Z NCEP AND EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AS WELL AS NCEP
SREF...HAD GOOD CLUSTERING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THERE
WAS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF FORECAST DATA BASE. OF
SPECIAL NOTE...PROBABILISTIC DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY WAS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES.

TODAY INTO THE EVENING...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...
TRANSITING THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR LOW-TOP CONVECTION...AS
SUPPORTED BY T-Q INDICES OF 18C. IN ADDITION...500MB TEMPERATURES OF
MINUS 20C SUPPORT STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM. AS
A RESULT...CONVECTION ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BENEATH COLD POOL
ALOFT...BECOMING MOST ACTIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE...WHICH
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...500-300MB PV-ADVECTION SIGNAL
SHOULD AID IN FORCING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBILITY FOR COLD AIR
FUNNELS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE HAD A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WAS REFLECTED IN 500-300MB PV-
ADVECTION. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
T-Q INDICES OF 16C-18C...LOW-END RAIN CHANCE APPEARS WARRANTED ON
SUNDAY...AS IN CURRENT DATA BASE.

DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY...BRISK WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. NUDGED WIND GUST SPEEDS UPWARD
TODAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AS WELL AS HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTED THIS
SOLUTION. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT RAIN
CHANCES WARRANTED IN THIS TIME FRAME.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...CURRENT DATA BASE WAS WEIGHTED
TOWARD DRY REGIME OF GFS. ON THE OTHER HAND...NCEP MREF AND 28.00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES MAY BE WARRANTED ON FRIDAY...SHOULD
SURFACE FRONT LAG BACK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY SLOT POST THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION...INCLUDING KRST/KLSE. CLOUDS WILL
RETURN LATER TODAY THOUGH...AS A 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ADD COLD AIR ALOFT AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND SCT -SHRA/TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY IN THE VFR RANGE...BUT A DIP INTO MVFR LOOKS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS AND
PCPN CHANCES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT. CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY LOOK TO
MIRROR TODAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION..........RIECK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 28, 5:00 AM CDT, 7 hours 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-291000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CHURN ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...INTERACTING WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO
ALSO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...LASTING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MORE
FAVORABLE PERIOD WOULD BE FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM.

IN ADDITION...WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT...AND THE STRONG
DISTURBANCE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNEL
DEVELOPMENT. COLD AIR FUNNELS NORMALLY DO NOT REACH THE
GROUND...AND AS A RESULT...THEY RARELY DO ANY DAMAGE AND LAST ONLY A
FEW MINUTES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

NEXT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LOCAL GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

RIECK

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.