Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272316
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
616 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAC037-067-089-131-280000-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-080628T0000Z/
MITCHELL IA-HOWARD IA-FLOYD IA-CHICKASAW IA-
616 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CHICKASAW...FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL
COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELMA TO FLOYD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 34 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  JERICO AND IONIA AROUND 630 PM...
  NEW HAMPTON AND NASHUA AROUND 635 PM...
  LAWLER AROUND 645 PM...
  FREDERICKSBURG AROUND 655 PM...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4327 9278 4337 9255 4314 9208 4291 9209
      4291 9257 4296 9273 4308 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 299DEG 30KT 4326 9239 4314 9246
          4308 9270

$$

DTJ

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272333
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAC131-272343-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-080628T0000Z/
MITCHELL IA-
633 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4316 9265 4329 9240 4314 9208 4305 9208
      4305 9209 4302 9208 4291 9209 4291 9248
      4294 9267 4301 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 299DEG 30KT 4319 9222 4307 9229
          4301 9253

$$

IAC037-067-089-280000-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-080628T0000Z/
HOWARD IA-FLOYD IA-CHICKASAW IA-
633 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CHICKASAW...EASTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JERICO TO NEW HAMPTON TO NASHUA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
34 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAWLER AROUND 645 PM...
  FREDERICKSBURG AROUND 650 PM...
  FREDERICKSBURG AROUND 655 PM...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4316 9265 4329 9240 4314 9208 4305 9208
      4305 9209 4302 9208 4291 9209 4291 9248
      4294 9267 4301 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 299DEG 30KT 4319 9222 4307 9229
          4301 9253

$$

DTJ

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272345
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAC089-272354-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-080628T0000Z/
HOWARD IA-
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4313 9257 4322 9238 4320 9221 4314 9208
      4305 9208 4305 9209 4302 9208 4291 9209
      4291 9248 4294 9267 4297 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 299DEG 30KT 4314 9211 4302 9218
          4296 9242

$$

IAC037-067-280000-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-080628T0000Z/
FLOYD IA-CHICKASAW IA-
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CHICKASAW AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES...

AT 640 PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH 4 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF JERICO.

AT 640 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PROTIVIN
TO LAWLER TO IONIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FREDERICKSBURG AROUND 650 PM...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4313 9257 4322 9238 4320 9221 4314 9208
      4305 9208 4305 9209 4302 9208 4291 9209
      4291 9248 4294 9267 4297 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 299DEG 30KT 4314 9211 4302 9218
          4296 9242

$$

DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM BAUDETTE MINNESOTA TO DES MOINES
IOWA. FURTHER WEST...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS LANGDON NORTH DAKOTA TO CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THE COLD FRONT. THE ARX MESOWRF
SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP WITH THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN THIS LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE
WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALREADY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. WITH LIMITED CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH...ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.
IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 10 PM.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL... AND ITS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP
SURFACE TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME HAIL MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL AROUND FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY

THE 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
TROPICAL FORCING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CARIBBEAN...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND AFRICA. THE FORMER FORCING KEEPS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 27.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE 27.00Z ECMWF AND 27.12Z GFS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WOULD PROVIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION WAS CONFINED TO THOSE TIME PERIODS. HOWEVER
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS FURTHER TOMORROW...
BECAUSE THE 27.12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND IT PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS IS
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 27.06Z GFS SHOWED.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

CONCERN TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCT -TSRA WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THEY SHIFT OVER THE SITES. COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO
45KT OR SO IF LINEAR STORM MODE IS REALIZED. HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT MODERATE WNWLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM 8-13 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONG
SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT FOR SATURDAY SET TO BRING QUICK
INCREASE IN CUMULUS/SHRA AS RAPID DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SHRA SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS AS THE DAYTIME WEARS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

01/01/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
953 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-281000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
953 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY CONTAIN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING HEAVY RAIN THREATS
LOCALIZED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING...OR FLASH FLOODING...IS NOT
EXPECTED...THOUGH URBAN AREAS MAY SEE TYPICAL RUNOFF ISSUES AND
STREET FLOODING WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

NEXT...ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN
IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD ALSO BE
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

RIECK/BINAU