Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 222216
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
517 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

WIC063-121-222230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-080622T2230Z/
TREMPEALEAU WI-LA CROSSE WI-
517 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LA CROSSE AND SOUTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CAMP EHAWEE...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF LA CROSSE...MOVING SOUTH AT
30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COUNTY ROADS M AND W AND COUNTY ROADS M AND S AROUND 530 PM...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4394 9113 4395 9126 4403 9125 4414 9125
      4414 9124 4419 9125 4420 9115 4408 9115
      4407 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 000DEG 20KT 4406 9119

$$

THOMPSON

000 
WWUS53 KARX 222225
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
525 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

WIC121-222235-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-080622T2230Z/
TREMPEALEAU WI-
525 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4394 9113 4395 9126 4406 9125 4406 9122
      4409 9119 4409 9117 4408 9115 4408 9113
      4407 9112 4407 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 357DEG 27KT 4400 9118

$$

WIC063-222230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-080622T2230Z/
LA CROSSE WI-
525 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LA CROSSE COUNTY...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR STEVENSTOWN...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF LA CROSSE...MOVING SOUTH AT 
30 MPH. THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS RADAR INDICATED THIS 
STORM WAS STILL SEVERE.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COUNTY ROADS M AND W AND COUNTY ROADS M AND S AROUND 530 PM...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4394 9113 4395 9126 4406 9125 4406 9122
      4409 9119 4409 9117 4408 9115 4408 9113
      4407 9112 4407 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 357DEG 27KT 4400 9118

$$

THOMPSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ROTATING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AREA
RADAR IMAGERY DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE. LAPS SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH ONLY 15 TO
20 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.

22.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. NAM/WRF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH WAVE TO
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH GFS PAINTING MORE QPF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. NO CLEAR CUT FAVORITE AND LEANING TOWARD THE SREF
SOLUTION IN THE LATER PERIODS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. 22.15Z ARXRUCWRF SHOWS CONVECTION TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DISSIPATING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES. WILL KEEP SCATTERED WORDING IN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. MODEL TRENDS ARE THEN FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT RETURN
FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF MCS DEVELOPING WITH ONE PUSHING TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. I HAVE KEPT THE LOWER
POPS VALUES IN THIS TIME FRAME AND CAN REFINE IF NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW THE MCS ACTIVITY WILL PAN OUT DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME ANYTHING. SREF SHOWING LOWER PROBABILITIES IN
THIS TIME WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS SET OF GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OVERALL DETAILS IN THIS TIME FRAME. BOTH THE
22.06Z GFS AND 22.00Z ECMWF SHOW A ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARD
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. ENSEMBLES
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS IN THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITH WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO
TIME SHORTWAVES EXPECTED WITHIN THE FLOW...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
MUCH. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS IN THIS TIME
FRAME. LOOKS AS THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
WORKS IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND THUS WILL GO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY INTO MONDAY

500 MB SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL WORK WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE TO SPARK SCT -SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MID
EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO HIGHER THREAT FOR KLSE RATHER THAN KRST...UP
TO AROUND 02Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS...WITH A SUNNY AND VFR DAY FOR
MONDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
GENERALLY STAY ON THE LIGHT-SIDE MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...UP TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM - RABERDING
AVIATION - RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
459 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-231100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
459 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
COMMON ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DEEPER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING
GREATER INSTABILITY AND A HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THUS THE DETAILS
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE MIDDLE INTO LATTER PARTS OF THIS
WEEK REMAIN UNCLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RRS