Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 121958
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

WIC043-122007-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080612T2000Z/
GRANT WI-
257 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 300 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES AND FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURING 
IN GRANT COUNTY IN MANY AREAS. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA WITH STEEP 
TERRAIN OR NEAR A CREEK...OR STREAM SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4265 9075 4275 9080 4295 9043
      4286 9042 4269 9042 4259 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 233DEG 46KT 4304 9004

$$

BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
430 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT 4 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
THE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE INFRARED CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS A RESULT IN THE DECREASE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE 35 TO 45 DBZ ECHOS MAINLY
BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. AS A RESULT...THIS EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED CURRENTLY TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MORE ON THIS CAN BE
FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGIC PART OF THIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

THE MAIN OTHER QUESTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS WHETHER THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY SEE SOME RECOVERY LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 12.00Z EASTARW4 AND EASTNMM4 AND THE
12.06Z NAM/WRF ARE HINTING THAT THIS POSSIBILITY MAY OCCUR AND
THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12.06Z
NAM/WRF MEAN LAYER CAPE CLIMBS INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME THE 0-6 KM CAPES WILL BE IN
THE EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EAST OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA
LINE. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AND 0-1 KN STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. AGAIN THIS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO BUILD SOME
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE 12.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
SEVERAL WAVES WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THEN THE
MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
HAS THE AREA DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY...AND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS ALWAYS THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVES IN
THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS NOT USUALLY HANDLED THAT WELL BY THE
MODELS...SO I WILL PASS ANY CHANGES ONTO THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL IN THIS AREA
OF RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR VISIBILITIES. COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS AREA OF RAIN AND
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING WITH THE EASTARW4 SHOWING THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE
EAST BY 15Z. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT GOING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAPS 12.07Z SHOWING WARM CLOUD DEPTHS JUST OVER 4 KM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 12.06Z RUC SHOWS THAT
THESE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION MOST OF THE HIGHER RETURNS ARE BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE TRANSITIONED
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THE MODELS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL END GENERALLY WEST OF AN
OSSEO WISCONSIN TO NEW HAMPTON IOWA LINE...I HAVE MOVED UP THE END
TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. UP TO AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS DODGE AND MOWER IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND MITCHELL AND FLOYD COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IOWA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE
WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE GREATEST TOTALS LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ032-
     WIZ033.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ034-
     WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-
     MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008-
     IAZ009-IAZ018-IAZ019.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ029-
     IAZ030.

&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE
AVIATION - 04
HYDROLOGY - BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ032-033-131100-
BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-DODGE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-
TREMPEALEAU-WABASHA-WINONA-
545 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE 1 PM. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN INCH WEST OF A
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND FURTHER RIVER
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ017-029-034-041>044-053>055-061-131100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-GRANT-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-VERNON-WINNESHIEK-
545 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW TORNADOES SOUTHEAST OF AN OELWEIN IOWA TO NECEDAH WISCONSIN LINE.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 2 PM THROUGH
8 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
4 INCH RANGE.

WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND FURTHER RIVER
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
151 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N DICKEYVILLE         42.68N 90.59W
06/12/2008                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SILO TOP BLOWN OFF AND BARN OR SHED BLOWN DOWN ALONG
            COUNTY ROAD O NORTH OF DICKEYVILLE. WATER WAS OVER
            FLOWING OVER SOME NEARBY ROADS.

&&

SHEA