Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 161606
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1106 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC019-161630-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-080716T1630Z/
CLARK WI-
1105 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY...

AT 1101 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LONGWOOD...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ATWOOD AROUND 1130 AM...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE PONDING OF 
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY 
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOTION.

LAT...LON 4499 9044 4481 9045 4482 9076 4488 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 244DEG 10KT 4489 9060

$$

BAUMGARDT

000 
WWUS53 KARX 161617
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1117 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC019-161630-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-080716T1630Z/
CLARK WI-
1118 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY...

AT 1114 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LONGWOOD...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY AT 1130 AM

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4499 9044 4481 9045 4482 9076 4488 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 219DEG 11KT 4494 9058

$$

BAUMGARDT

000 
WWUS53 KARX 161627
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1127 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

WIC019-161637-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-080716T1630Z/
CLARK WI-
1127 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 1130 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED NORTH 
TO NEAR THE TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTY BORDER. THE STORM NO LONGER 
APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING 
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4499 9044 4481 9045 4482 9076 4488 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 219DEG 11KT 4496 9056

$$

BAUMGARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL.

DATA ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAD A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN SD THROUGH SOUTHERN MN...THROUGH CENTRAL WI. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER EASTERN NEB REACHING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S/DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

16.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SERVE TO
SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SD WHICH WILL AID IN LIFTING THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA A BIT FURTHER NORTH...VICINITY I-94
BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STRENGTHENING
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE BOUNDARY. MCS INITIATION LOOKS
LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN ON THE NOSE OF THIS
TRANSPORT...PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE AREA WITH NEW CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH
BLACK RIVER FALLS...WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH AS STRONGER CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
LIKELY POP AREA ALSO AS 0-3KM MLCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 2000J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-30KT.

FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT AREA WITH FURTHER MCS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN ESF BASED ON THIS SIGNAL AND WILL
DISCUSS HEAVY RAIN FURTHER IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LAY UP ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

16.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHOWING MID-LEVEL WAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
MODELS THEN SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT FURTHER WEST
OVER THE AREA WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. EITHER WAY...WITH COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT...THERE
STAND OF CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDS
SEEM TO HAVE THIS HANDLED...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN IN RESPONSE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THE 16.00Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH
AND WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO THE FRONT...BOTH TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE EASTERN GRADIENT
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY GOING FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THE VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH CENTRAL WI WILL DRIFT
NORTH TODAY TO ALONG A LAKE CITY THROUGH BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL WORK
NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME AREAS NORTH OF A LAKE CITY THROUGH BLACK
RIVER FALLS LINE RECEIVING UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE SOILS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL...BUT
IF THE RAIN BECOMES EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS MAY
OCCUR WITH RAPID RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. WILL LIKELY
ISSUE AN ESF PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTING THIS CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION..........04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-171100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
550 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LAKE
CITY MINNESOTA TO BLACK RIVER FALLS WISCONSIN LINE COULD SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FLOODING. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DUMP
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. REPORTS OF RAINFALL AND
ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

04