Frost Advisory 3, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS73 KARX 031715
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA... AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ANTICIPATED.

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-088-096-WIZ032-033-041-053>055-061-040115-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.081004T0600Z-081004T1400Z/
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-WABASHA-WINONA-HOUSTON-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-
LA CROSSE-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKON...WINONA...LA CROSSE...VIROQUA...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

$$

RABERDING

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS73 KARX 031951
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
251 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA... AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED.

IAZ009-010-029-MNZ086-087-094-095-040400-
/O.EXA.KARX.FR.Y.0003.081004T0600Z-081004T1400Z/
HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-FAYETTE-DODGE-OLMSTED-MOWER-FILLMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...AUSTIN
251 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

$$

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-088-096-WIZ032-033-041-053>055-061-040400-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.081004T0600Z-081004T1400Z/
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-WABASHA-WINONA-HOUSTON-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-
LA CROSSE-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKON...WINONA...LA CROSSE...VIROQUA...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
251 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

$$

RABERDING

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS73 KARX 040130
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
830 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THUS ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED.

IAZ009>011-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-053>055-
061-040930-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.081004T0600Z-081004T1400Z/
HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-
WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-LA CROSSE-
VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...
ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...LA CROSSE...VIROQUA...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
830 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

$$

THOMPSON

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS73 KARX 040733
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
233 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

...FROST EXPECTED THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING...

.HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. THIS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S THROUGH SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 9
AM THIS MORNING.

IAZ009>011-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-053>055-
061-041400-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-081004T1400Z/
HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-
WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-LA CROSSE-
VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...
ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...LA CROSSE...VIROQUA...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
233 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

$$

DAS

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS73 KARX 041402
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
902 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

...FROST ADVISORY EXPIRES...

.WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THE FROST ADVISORY IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IAZ009>011-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-053>055-
061-041515-
/O.EXP.KARX.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-081004T1400Z/
HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-
WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-LA CROSSE-
VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...
ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...LA CROSSE...VIROQUA...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
902 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS THE FROST ADVISORY IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE..

$$

RABERDING

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS ON COLD TEMPS AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN
TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  NARROW BAND OF CLOUD
TRAILING IT...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MB DROPPING SOUTH INTO MN...WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO MO/AR/TN.  OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD BAND...SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. EXCEPTIONS BEING
SOME LAKE CLOUD ACROSS THE U.P. AND INTO NORTHEAST WI...AS WELL AS
SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. TEMPS
QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES WITH READINGS INTO THE 20S OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WI.

PERUSAL OF THE EVENING MODEL RUNS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE RETURN FLOW AND ONSET OF RAIN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS SHIFTS THE MAIN FORCING FURTHER NORTH FASTER
THAN NAM AND SREF SUGGEST.  WHILE GFS HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD TRACK
RECORD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THINKING THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST
AS IT MOVES INTO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE. EITHER WAY...LOOKING LIKE
RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MAIN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING POLAR VORTEX COULD BRING SOME CLOUD TO
EASTERN WI TODAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT AND
WESTWARD EXTENT.  DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY WEST...
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE A GREAT DEAL UNDER COLD ADVECTION
REGIME.

BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY TONIGHT. WITH RIDGE
OVERHEAD...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION...OPTED TO RAISE FROST
HEADLINES.  FOR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WE ARE BEYOND THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE AVERAGE FROST PER LOCAL RESEARCH...
SO WILL NOT UTILIZE HEADLINES THERE. LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 20S
FOR THESE AREAS.  BUT FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST/SOUTH...NOT QUITE TO THE
AVERAGE FIRST FROST DATE YET. WITH LOWS IN THIS AREA IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S...WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY. MAY BE PATCHY IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO TERRAIN...BUT ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY.
CONSIDERED GOING EVEN FURTHER WEST WITH THE HEADLINE...BUT WILL LET
THE DAY CREW GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE LATEST INFO TO MAKE THAT
DETERMINATION.

CURRENT FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN MO ON SATURDAY...AND THEN HEADS
BACK NORTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS UP TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA...A STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION. BUT...THE UPPER FLOW IS
SOMEWHAT BLOCKED...AS ANOTHER SURGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND KEEPS IT ANCHORED.
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SQUASHED...LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
FAST EVERYTHING WILL PROGRESS. THIS AIRMASS BATTLE LEADS TO SOME
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK TO SYNC UP SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
IA...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. NICE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND JET CURVATURE LEAD TO
AMPLE BROAD SCALE LIFT TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS.
BOTTOM LINE...INCREASED AND EXPANDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA...
AND WENT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WITH STRENGTH OF FORCING AND PRESENCE
OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE ON MONDAY...BUT ITS POSITION
WILL BE KEY TO THE POPS AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT
MOVES FURTHER NORTH...AND ESPECIALLY IF IT MOVES NORTH AS FAST AS
THE GFS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE A BIG PROBLEM AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY. NAM/SREF/ECMWF ALL KEEP THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...
BUT GFS FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW ERRED ON THE LOW SIDE...AND STAYED
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.  BEYOND THIS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. LOOKING
LIKE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. BUT THE PATTERN
BECOMES QUITE MUDDLED BEYOND THAT...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
SHEARS MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL PATTERN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THUS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS ON TARGET FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO IA/IL THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO MN/WI. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE TAF SITES TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA/GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING THE KLSE TAF SITE.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON EXTENT OF FOG SINCE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING
ANY FOG FORMATION. WILL ASSESS MODELS CLOSER FOR 03.12Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND SEE IF ANY FOG IS WARRANTED AT THE KLSE TAF SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT.

DAS

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ032-033-041-053>055-061.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ079-088-096.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ011-030.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
434 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-031000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
434 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE BOTH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BINAU