Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2008

Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

February 16, 200810 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Feb 16, 2008, 3:55 PM EST for 10 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Feb 17, 2008, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 22 hr. 12 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 16, 2008, 3:55 PM EST (20:55 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 17, 2008, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 18, 2008, 4:31 AM EST
In force
22 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 17, 8:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Grayling, MIGLAZE COVERING ALL SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADWAYS COUNTY WIDE.
Feb 17, 8:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Rogers City, MIGLAZE COVERING ALL SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADWAYS COUNTY WIDE.
Feb 17, 9:17 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Gaylord, MIGLAZE COVERING ALL SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADWAYS COUNTY WIDE.
Feb 17, 9:52 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Kewadin, MIGLAZE COVERING ALL SURFACES...INCLUDING ROADWAYS COUNTY WIDE.
Feb 17, 12:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.34 Sw Gaylord, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU NOON. GLAZE COVERING ALL SURFACES.
Feb 17, 2:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Honor, MIICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH 2PM. AS MUCH AS .5 INCH IN SPOTS.
Feb 17, 2:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Indian River, MITOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION THRU 2PM.
Feb 17, 2:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Kalkaska, MITOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION THRU 2PM.
Feb 17, 2:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Maple City, MITOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION THRU 2PM.
Feb 17, 2:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.4Traverse City, MITOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH 2PM.
Feb 17, 2:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.5Posen, MITOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION THRU 2PM.
Feb 17, 8:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.34 Nnw Pellston, MITOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION THRU 8 PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2008-02-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2008-02-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 158 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
608 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
158 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
333 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 162055
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY. ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WHILE JUST TO THE EAST
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT...
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MIZ016>022-025>027-171100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0010.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
355 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW IN THE STRAITS REGION...AND
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM M-32 ON SOUTH. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MIT. ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
M-68...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-171100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0010.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1500Z-080218T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
355 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
A TOTAL OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ023-024-028>036-041-042-171100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0010.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.080217T1200Z-080217T2200Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
355 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHING TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-55 CORRIDOR.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$
9 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 170302
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...A SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WHILE JUST TO THE
EAST SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT... COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MIZ016>022-025>027-171715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
1002 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW IN THE STRAITS REGION...AND
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM M-32 ON SOUTH. A LIGHT COATING OF
ICE IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MIT. ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY
RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-68...
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-171715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1500Z-080218T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1002 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH A TOTAL OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ023-024-028>036-041-042-171715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.080217T1200Z-080217T2200Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1002 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM
EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHING TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-55 CORRIDOR.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 170909
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TODAY INTO MONDAY...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...A SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WHILE JUST TO THE
EAST SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MIZ016>022-025>027-172315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
409 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW IN THE STRAITS REGION...AND
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM M-32 ON SOUTH. A LIGHT COATING OF
ICE IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MIT. ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY
RAIN AND FREEZING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF M-68... SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-172315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1500Z-080218T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
409 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH A TOTAL OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ023-024-028>036-041-042-172200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.080217T1200Z-080217T2200Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
409 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHING TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-55 CORRIDOR.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

JL
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 170952 CCA
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
451 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TODAY INTO MONDAY...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...A SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL...WHILE JUST TO THE
EAST SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MIZ016>022-025>027-180015-
/O.COR.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1200Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
451 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW IN THE STRAITS REGION...AND
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...SOUTH OF M-32. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT. ALTHOUGH PRIMARILY RAIN
AND FREEZING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
M-68... SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-180015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080217T1500Z-080218T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
451 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH A TOTAL OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ023-024-028>036-041-042-172200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.080217T1200Z-080217T2200Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
451 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHING TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-55 CORRIDOR.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

JL
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 171553
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TODAY INTO MONDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS...REACHING
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT...COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MIZ008-015-172300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A TOTAL OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>022-025>027-172300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW NEAR THE
STRAITS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATION APPROACHING A HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR ELEVATED LOCATIONS. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ023-024-028>036-041-042-172200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080217T2200Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHING A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 172110
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTRY MIX TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOMORROW...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...CHANGING THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW
LATER TONIGHT. STARTING MONDAY...COLD AIR WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT...LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

MIZ028-181100-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080218T1200Z-080219T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080218T0000Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING. 

DESPITE TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AREA
ROADWAYS REMAIN ICE COVERED AND EXTREMELY SLIPPERY. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MELTS THE ICE COVER.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST
OF GRAYLING.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ008-181100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WEST OF I-75.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019>022-025>027-181100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

SNOW DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES....WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015-181100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...BRINGING TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO 8 TO 10 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>018-181100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH TODAYS FREEZING
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ023-024-029>036-041-042-180000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080218T0000Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
410 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

DESPITE TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AREA
ROADWAYS REMAIN ICE COVERED AND EXTREMELY SLIPPERY. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR MELTS THE ICE COVER.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 180106
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTRY MIX TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TOMORROW...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...
CHANGING THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW LATER
TONIGHT. STARTING MONDAY...COLD AIR WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT...LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

MIZ015-181200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...BRINGING TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO 8 TO 10 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-181515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF I-75.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>018-181200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

POCKETS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH TODAYS FREEZING RAIN...
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ028-181515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080218T1200Z-080219T1200Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY. 

DESPITE TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING...AREA
ROADWAYS REMAIN ICE COVERED AND EXTREMELY SLIPPERY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SNOW...
HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF GRAYLING.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ019>022-025>027-181515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. 

SNOW DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES....WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
10 INCHES EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 180206 CCA
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTRY MIX TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TOMORROW...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...
CHANGING THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW LATER
TONIGHT. STARTING MONDAY...COLD AIR WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT...LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

MIZ015-181200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...BRINGING TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO 8 TO 10 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-181515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF I-75.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>018-181200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

POCKETS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH TODAYS FREEZING RAIN...
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ028-181515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080218T1200Z-080219T1200Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY. 

DESPITE TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING...AREA
ROADWAYS REMAIN ICE COVERED AND EXTREMELY SLIPPERY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SNOW...
HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST 
AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF GRAYLING.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ019>022-025>027-181515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
806 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. 

SNOW DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES....WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
10 INCHES EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 180320
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR WILL SWEEP INTO AREA REGION BEHIND THE LOW...
CHANGING THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.
A SIGNIFICANT...LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MIZ015-181200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...BRINGING TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO 8 TO 10 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-181730-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF I-75.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>018-181200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

POCKETS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH TODAYS FREEZING RAIN...
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ028-181730-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080218T1200Z-080219T1200Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY. 

DESPITE TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING...AREA
ROADWAYS REMAIN ICE COVERED AND EXTREMELY SLIPPERY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW...
HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF GRAYLING.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ019>022-025>027-181730-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. 

SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES....WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 180931
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.THE WINTER STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH MICHIGAN YESTERDAY WILL NOW
HELP TO BRING ABOUT NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY
AS SO THAT THE SNOW BANDS WILL BEGIN TO FORM...MAINLY TOWARD LATE
MORNING.

MIZ019>022-025>027-181745-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0005.080218T0931Z-080219T1000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
431 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL FORM BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SAME
DIRECTION THROUGH THE NEXT DAY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW
BELTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. 

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-181745-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0005.080218T0931Z-080219T1000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
431 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL FORM BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SAME
DIRECTION THROUGH THE NEXT DAY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW
BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR WHITEFISH
POINT...PARADISE...AND AREAS WEST OF BRIMLEY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ028-181745-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0007.080218T1200Z-080219T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0005.080218T0931Z-080219T1000Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING
431 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL FORM BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SAME
DIRECTION THROUGH THE NEXT DAY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW
BELTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015>018-181045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-080218T1200Z/
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...
ROGERS CITY
431 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

JL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 16, 12:42 PM EST, 3 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 12:42 PM EST, 3 hours 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. GET YOUR FLYING IN THEN...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
INTO MI ON SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING...
INITIALLY SNOW AT PLN...AND FZRA/PL AT APN/TVC...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.

JZ

&&

.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM SAT FEB 16...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OH/PA/NY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF
RETURN FLOW AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS
WARM ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING BY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HELPED GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS MORNING. RADAR AND
OBS SHOW THE SNOW DWINDLING FAST. MEANWHILE... CLEARING IS EDGING UP
INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS ALL MORNING
IN PARTS OF NE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER MI. CLOUD TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL REMOVE THE LAST OF THE SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. CLOUD
TRENDS ARE TRICKIER...AS WE WILL MAINTAIN A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER
OVER THE LAKES...EVEN AS THE OBVIOUS CLEARING LINE TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH MOVES IN. WITH SW TO SSW SUB-900MB WINDS...SUSPECT WE WILL
HANG ONTO SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST...AND
ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER MI (WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS WERE
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER).

TEMPS ARE RECOVERING RELATIVELY NICELY AFTER A COLD START...WITH
MAINLY TEENS EVERYWHERE. MAY NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS UP A BIT.

ZOLTOWSKI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008/

DISCUSSION....THE TWO MAIN FEATURES ON THE MAP THIS MORNING ARE
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE DESERT SW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
COMING OVC THE RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NW. OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CURRENTLY IS THE SFC HIGH AND THE 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE EJECTION OF THE 500 MB
LOW IN THE SW PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE AND THE
RESULTING SFC LOW.

MODELS...THE MODELS TODAY HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW AND THE
RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT THAT IS PUSHING UP THROUGH THE
MICHIGAN. NOT EXPECTING A LOT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, SO NO REAL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THE WAA.

TONIGHT...DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AND WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WEAK RIDGING
AT 700 MB AND 500 MB, WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION
UNTIL...09Z THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH INCREASES TO
ABOVE 80% AND THE 850 MB LEVEL RH IS ALREADY WELL OVER 90%. THE SFC
LOW IS IN E MISSOURI WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WOULD START ALONG THE W PART OF THE
M-55 CORRIDOR INITIALLY.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE INCREASING IN
AREA AND INTENSITY AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE IN N ILLINOIS BY 18Z AND S
LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. WITH THE LOW THAT FAR TO THE WEST WOULD EXPECT
THAT THE 850 WARM AIR WOULD PULL THE 0C LINE PRETTY FAR WEST. IN
THIS CASE LOOKING AT THE NAM AND GFS, THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE RUNS
FROM AROUND SLH TO ABOUT FKS. SO HAVE SNOW N AND W OF A LINE FROM
PZQ TO JUST SOUTH OF FKS, WHILE S AND E OF THE LINE IT IS A MIX OF
FZRA AND IP. THEN HAVE A MIX THAT RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG THE M-68
CORRIDOR SOUTH WHILE ALLOWING ALL RAIN INTO THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ICING IS LOOKING LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY, SO WILL
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND EXPAND THE WATCH TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING IN THE SOUTHERN
REGIONS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE NIGHT, THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO COME
RUSHING BACK IN AT 850 MB, ENDING THE RAIN AND CONVERTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z. BY 12Z, THE SFC LOW IS FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT EVERYWHERE THERE IS SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BEGIN
TO ADD TO HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE.

MONDAY...AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PULLS TO THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING. BY 18Z, WITH THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE REGION, LES LOOKS
TO BE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. THE FLOW LOOKS TO GO FROM NNW
TO NW OVER THE AFTERNOON, SO WHILE THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES,
IT WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER THE REGION FROM TVC TO GLR AS THE WIND
SHIFTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND -17C
TO -20C. SO TEMPERATURES ARE IN A GOOD REGION FOR DECENT FLAKE
GROWTH AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 80% IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER.
WIND DIRECTION NOW LOOKS LIKE IT REMAINS LOCKED IN AT THE NW. SO
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BIGGER SNOW BANDS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NIGHT. BY 12Z, THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT IS STARTING
TO PUSH EAST WITH THE STORM AND DRIER AIR IS ABOUT TO SETTLE IN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE, DONT SEE MUCH
TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT HPC
GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO TWEAKING OF THE LONGER TERM
GRIDS ARE FORESEEN AT THIS POINT.

LUTZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.

LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 4:26 AM EST, 11 hours 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
426 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
171100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
426 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT AT LEAST A PORTION OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW AND/OR ICE ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. PLEASE SEE ONGOING WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LUTZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 16, 3:55 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXAlcona, Alpena, Arenac, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco and 7 more27 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2008Every winter storm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.