Winter Storm Warning 16, NWS Gaylord, MI

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 240303
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1003 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...

.A BREAK FROM THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN AREAS NORTH OF M-55
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF M-55...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED...SO
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

MIZ015-240415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-081224T0500Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
1003 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ018-023-024-028>030-033>036-041-042-241715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1003 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

A BREAK FROM THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
NORTH OF M-55. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY EXCEED 8 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NEED TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY...AS TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIFFICULT.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>027-031-032-241715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
1003 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

A BREAK FROM THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
NORTH OF M-55. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

KAS

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 241008
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING WILL RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW...LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TRAVEL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED...SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

MIZ035-036-041-042-250015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.081224T1008Z-081225T0300Z/
OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
508 AM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LOCALLY HEAVY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING...PRODUCING
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM TUESDAY MORNING OF UP TO 6 INCHES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>027-031-032-250015-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
508 AM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LOCALLY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 6 INCHES BY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING
...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS. DRIVING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL BE SEVERLY IMPACTED...WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ018-023-024-028>030-033-034-250015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
508 AM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LOCALLY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 6 INCHES BY EVENING. DRIVING
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERLY IMPACTED...WITH
VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-250015-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.081224T1008Z-081225T0300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
508 AM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. STEADY
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL FALL ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LAKE
EFFECT AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MSB

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 242122
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL
TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT. TRAVEL THIS EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED...SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

MIZ018-023-024-028>030-033-034-250300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
422 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TOTALS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DRIVING THIS EVENING
WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED...WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>027-031-032-250300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
422 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TOTALS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DRIVING THIS EVENING
WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED...WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ008-015-250300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
422 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FALL WEST OF I-75...IN
THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS...MAINLY WEST OF BRIMLEY AND
BREVORT. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ035-036-041-042-250300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
422 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAVE FALLEN
ALREADY...THE TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE 3
TO 5 INCHES. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JL

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 250258
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...

.AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ARE
NOT EXPECTED...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORELINES OVERNIGHT.
TRAVEL OVERNIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED...SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

MIZ016-017-019>022-026>028-251000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.081225T0300Z-081225T1000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING
958 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FALL
WEST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-72...IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. 

IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH...WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

$$

MIZ018-023>025-029>034-250400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE
958 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

MIZ015-035-036-041-042-250400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-081225T0300Z/
MACKINAC-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
958 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ008-251000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-081225T1000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
958 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FALL
WEST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-72...IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. 

IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH...WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WHITEFISH BAY SHORELINES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 351 PM/

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES LOWER MI/LAKE HURON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN
MI FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH ONLY SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED. WARMER AIR
THEN EXPECTED TO FLOOD NORTHWARD FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH A SNOW-TO-
RAIN EVENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

JPB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 351 PM/...TONIGHT

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE WEST OF E UPPER. THE WINDS ARE PROGGED
TO SHIFT (1000-850 MB) TOWARD W MACKINAC COUNTY BY 00Z. WINDS ON THE
GFS (PREFERRED SOLUTION TODAY) LOCK IN AT 220/230 WIND DIRECTION
(1000-850 MB) FOR THE ENTIRE 12 HOUR PERIOD. TRIED TO PLAY THE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE GRIDS WITH OUT GETTING TOO CUTE, BUT WITH THE WAA
SNOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THE SPREAD OF THE SNOW
WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNIFORM OVER THE REGION. AMOUNTS FROM THIS SNOW
LOOK TO BE MODERATE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE REGION AND THE
LES FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM GETS GOING. THE MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER BEGINS TO STRIP OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
SOUNDINGS IN E UPPER SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SNOW OR FLURRIES WHILE
IN NE LOWER, ESPECIALLY NEAR WEST BRANCH, WHERE IT IS MORE LIKELY
FOR THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE OUT, FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
PATCHY. WITH ALL OF THE SNOW, IT IS HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH THE FZDZ. IF THERE ARE 3 INCHES ON THE ROADS, THEN THE FZDZ
WILL BE PASSE.

LUTZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 351 PM/...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME GUIDANCE SPREAD REGARDING STRENGTH OF LOW
LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.  SURFACE LOW TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...BUT THERE IS A SPLIT
IN HOW DEEP LOW GETS.  FOR NOW PLAN TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE WEAKER NAM AND STRONGER GFS...JUST HAVING A HARD TIME ACCEPTING
THE WEAKER SOLUTION FULL BORE.  TRICKY START TO THE DAY CHRISTMAS
EVE WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONTINUED
LULL IN THE ACTION (WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AREAS CLOSER TO
SAGINAW BAY)...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDE
BACK IN DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.  DYNAMICS ARE MUCH
BETTER THAN TODAYS EVENT...WITH A NICE LAYER 250MB DEEP LAYER OF
WEAKER STATIC STABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHICH
WONT HURT THE CAUSE.  OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER IN
TERMS OF POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL (6 HOURS).  SOME
DEFORMATION SNOWFALL LEFT BEHIND FOR THE EVENING HOURS...DONT
ANTICIPATE THAT TO ADD MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN GENERAL
THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WHICH COULD ADD A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SNOW TOTALS IN FAVORED AREAS.

THE STRONGER SOLUTION IS (NOT SURPRISINGLY) A WARMER SOLUTION AS
WELL WHICH COULD IMPACT PRECIP TYPE (AND THUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS)
AROUND OGEMAW/IOSCO/GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES.  BUT THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT ALL SNOW BEYOND THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  IN ADDITION...STRONGER SOLUTION OFFERS UP A STRONGER
MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THAT COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS WELL.
THIS COULD CUT OFF HEAVIER SNOWFALL SOONER...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND
COULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.

SO A LOT TO CONSIDER...BUT IN THE END LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL PROBABLY END UP RIGHT ON THE FENCE
BETWEEN ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A CAD-PZQ
LINE (4-8 INCHES AN APPROXIMATE 18H RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY).
AFTER CHATTING UP DTX...AND WITH A WARNING ALREADY UP ALONG US-10
CORRIDOR...WILL GO AHEAD AND MATCH HEADLINES UP WITH MISSAUKEE/
ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN/ARENAC/OGEMAW/IOSCO/CRAWFORD/OSCODA/ALCONA/
MONTMORENCY/ALPENA/PRESQUE ISLE. IT MAY BE THAT WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL ENDS UP MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING.
TO KEEP THIS SIMPLE WILL SURROUND THE WARNING WITH AN EXTENSION
OF THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER. WILL NOT CARRY ANY HEADLINES IN EASTERN UPPER FOR
TOMORROW AT THIS POINT. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT
10PM (03Z THURSDAY).

CHRISTMAS DAY...AFTER ALL OF THE ABOVE...I COULD USE A BREAK...AND
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL PROVIDE ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.  SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
AROUND...BUT A QUIET DAY FOR THE MOST PART.  WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PULLS TO THE EAST.  THIS
MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONGER RANGE MEAN PATTERN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKING PRETTY ZONAL THANKS IN NO SMALL PART
TO BLOCKING OVER GREAT BRITAIN EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC TOWARD ICELAND/GREENLAND.  PRIOR TO THIS HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  GOOD DEAL OF GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM REGARDING HOW QUICKLY HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD AIR
REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  23/00Z ECWMF EVEN OFFERS UP A SPLIT
WAVE SOLUTION...WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER LITTLE BOWLING BALL ROLLING
THROUGH SUNDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAN TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER
VERSION OF THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS IDEA...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSER TO SATURDAY EVENING.  NOT ENTIRELY SURE
WHAT TO MAKE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL
PULL OFF THAT TRICK AGAIN AT 12Z BEFORE PUTTING MORE CREDENCE INTO
IT.  ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO WILL BE A MORE DEFINITIVE SHIFT
TOWARD RAIN FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SNOW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN LAKE EFFECT AREAS FOR NOW AND ASSUME LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH EAST.  BEYOND THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL...WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES THAT WILL WREAK HAVOC WITH
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PART OF THE FORECAST.  NOT GOING TO PULL MY
HAIR OUT OVER THIS...LOW CHANCE POPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW AND WILL SEE IF WE CANT GET A BIT MORE CONSENSUS IN
LATER GUIDANCE.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE A NICE WARM UP
SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOL DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PLAN TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NOTHING TOO EXTREME GIVEN FLOW PATTERN AND WITHOUT A GOOD FEEL FOR
FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS POINT.

JPB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 351 PM/

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY UP THIS EVENING FOR LAKE HURON AND
LAKE MICHIGAN (SANS GRAND TRAVERSE BAY).  WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... RESULTING IN SLACKING
WINDS BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW RAMPS UP AS IT HEADS INTO LAKE HURON.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS.

JPB

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1230 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVR
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...AS A PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST STORM SYS CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT TWD THE STATE. THIS
WILL GENERATE MVFR/IFR CONDS OVR THE THREE NRN MI TAF SITES THIS
AFTN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID LVL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TREND THE
CURRENT SNOWFALL TO MIX WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NRN MI
GENERALLY BTW 06Z WED THRU 14Z WED. WILL MENTION LLWS THIS AFTN
DUE TO SW FLOW TO 45 KTS AT 2000FT...WHILE S TO SE SFC WINDS
STRUGGLE BTW 10 AND 15 KTS.

SWR

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-023-
     024-028>030-033>036-041-042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
     019>022-025>027-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ015.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346-348-349.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1255 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
241300-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1255 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED IN WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY...ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FURTHER
EXACERBATING THE POOR ROAD CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE ONGOING ADVISORIES
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. PLEASE SEE ONGOING WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE PASS ON SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

MSB