Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 110156
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
856 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN...

.AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN
INDIANA TO THE THUMB AREA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW TONIGHT.

MIZ030-033-111100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.080111T0300Z-080111T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0001.080111T0300Z-080111T2200Z/
ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY
856 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 6 INCHES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>029-031-032-111100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.080111T0300Z-080111T2200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC
856 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATION RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT TIMES WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. ONCE
THE STORM MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING...A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ON BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES MAY BRING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-034>036-041-042-111100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.080111T0300Z-080111T2200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
856 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL
WILL BE BRIEFLY INTENSE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 110951
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
451 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...HEAVY SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
THE SNOW BELT AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

MIZ024-029>033-111100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T2200Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
451 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.

$$

MIZ034>036-041-042-111100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T2200Z/
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
451 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.

$$

MIZ016>023-025>028-111500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1500Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
451 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UP TO ONE INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID
TO LATE MORNING LEAVING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW
BELT AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS OCCURRING.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-111500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
451 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES THROUGH MID
MORNING...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE STRAITS. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

ADAM

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 111218
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...HEAVY SNOW DIMINISHING...

.HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SNOW BELT AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY.

MIZ016-019>023-025>028-111330-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1500Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
718 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR LESS.

$$

MIZ017-018-111500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1500Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
718 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST 
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS OCCURRING.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-111500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1500Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
718 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES THROUGH MID
MORNING...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE STRAITS. ADDITIONAL SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY...BRINGING
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES TO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND THE STRAITS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

ADAM

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 111458
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...HEAVY SNOW DIMINISHING...

.MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SNOW BELT
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

MIZ017-018-111600-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1500Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
958 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

$$

MIZ008-015-111800-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080111T1800Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
958 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER THROUGH 1 PM. HOWEVER...HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

MC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATE AN ALREADY POTENT SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO GATHER
UP STEAM NEAR STL AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA.  WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTIVE PRECIP HAS BEEN SURGING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING AS WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION REGION. MEANWHILE...ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
PREDOMINATELY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F NEAR MANISTEE...WHILE MOST OF THE
AREA IS WITHIN THE LOW-MID 30 TEMPERATURE RANGE. POTENT SYSTEM IS
DUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT...AND SNOW HEADLINES ARE EASILY THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT TRIES TO CLOSE OFF AND TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE
TILT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS FROM NEAR
CHAMPAIGN...IL AT 00Z FRI TO THE THUMB BY 12Z FRI.  STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 35-50KT WILL GENERATE VERY GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON
THE 290-295K SURFACES AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 0-3ZISH.  NOT TOO LONG AFTER...REGION OF
STRONG -DIV Q AND AN 850-700MB FGEN BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER.  SOUNDINGS QUICKLY SATURATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT AS WARM
AIR QUICKLY MOVES NORTH...BELIEVE THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN
WITH SNOW OVER GLADWIN/ARENAC AND MANISTEE/BENZIE COUNTIES WITH
850MB TEMPS INITIALLY AROUND -1 TO -2C.  850-700MB FGEN AND LOW-MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  CROSS-HAIR
SIGNATURES INDICATE THAT AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM
ABOUT CADILLAC TO GAYLORD AND THEN TO ALPENA NW TO THE
BRIDGE...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
A REGION OF GOOD DENDRITIC SNOWFLAKE GROWTH.  TO THE SE...MAX OMEGA FALLS
BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM...SUGGESTING SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION WILL NOT
BE AS EFFICIENT AS FURTHER NORTH.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO SERVE
TO BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE ACROSS PRESQUE ISLE
AND ALPENA COUNTIES WHERE DELTA T/S WILL BE IN THE 9-12C RANGE.  QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE 0.1 INCH...AND
GIVEN THE 12 TO 15 TO 1 SNOW RATIO...A LOW END WINTER STORM WARNING
LOOKS GOOD WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HEAVY SNOW AREA AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHIP AND
MAC COUNTIES WILL ALSO RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM ST. IGNACE
TO DETOUR PROMPTING THE ADVISORY THERE.  ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES MAY
NOT GET UP TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS...SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVY FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING DUE TO WINDS AT
10-20KTS.  BELIEVE THIS WILL MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF ACHIEVED CRITERIA
IN SPOTS.

TOMORROW...LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  QG FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HIT OUR
NE COUNTIES WHILE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING.  EARLY NE WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NW AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE...BUT BRING IT BACK TO NW LOWER ON THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SIDE.  AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE
A COUPLE HOURS OF QG FORCING AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE.
ONCE THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE MOVES EAST...ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS.  DELTA T/S AROUND 13-14 WITH
850-700MB MOISTURE ABOVE 80PCT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SPELL
MINOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS.  MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ANY ONGOING LAKE EFFECT WILL BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN
AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL RUN WINTER STORM/ADVISORY HEADLINES
THROUGH 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE TAIL END
OF THE SYSTEM.

THANKS TO GRR/DTX FOR THE COORD.

MPC

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...BIGGEST FOCUS IS ON RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME COUPLED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
MARGINALLY COOL H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C (DELTA T/S ABOUT 10 TO 13C)
SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FLOW PATTERN NOT TOO BAD WITH CONNECTION TO
LAKE SUPERIOR...HOWEVER DIMINISHING MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT
(900-700MB RH DROPPING TO BELOW 70%) AS WELL AS LOSS OF
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PER DECREASING GRADIENT SHOULD
HOLD THINGS IN CHECK (PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS). BEYOND THIS...APPEARS LAKE AGGREGRATE TROUGHING WILL
HANG UP ACROSS THE REGION IN TYPICAL FASHION...CONTINUING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS
REMAIN JUST COOL ENOUGH (-10C OR SO) TO MAINTAIN SOME WEAK LAKE
COMPONENT WITH OVERALL LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
TO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S FOR
HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.

LATER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INITIALLY ACTIVE REGIME TO
ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE TRANQUIL ONE FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN CENTERED ON SNOW CHANCES
SUN/MON TIMEFRAME. OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUN-TUE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AS FAST PACIFIC FLOW
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN TROUGHING ACROSS INTERIOR
ALASKA...WITH BROAD RIDGING FOCUSED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. FOR THE
SUN-MON TIMEFRAME...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO LATCH ONTO A
POTENTIAL EAST COAST WINTER STORM AS ENERGY DIVES OVER THE RIDGE TO
FURTHER CARVE OUT AN EASTERN TROUGH...WHILE ADDITIONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FROM A PATTERN
RECOGNITION STANDPOINT (PENDING EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF EAST
COAST LOW)...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED
WITH INCREASING QG SUPPORT FROM APPROACH OF UPPER WAVE AND SUPPORT
FROM BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ENTER THE PICTURE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DOMINATES
THE WESTERN LAKES...AND EXPECTED DECENT STORM OFF TO THE EAST
EFFECTIVELY DISLODGES A COLDER AIRMASS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...INTENSIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
PROGGED TO ONCE AGAIN AID IN BUILDING PRONOUNCED RIDGING INTO ALASKA
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH ENERGY DROPPING OVER THE RIDGE AND
HELPING CARVE OUT TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS. WITH RESULTANT
DOWNSTREAM DEEP LAYER RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE TAKING HOLD BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL ATTEMPT TO SQUEEZE IN A DRY PERIOD FOR
MIDWEEK. THIS LIKELY TO BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THE
BIGGEST KINK WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH ENERGY CAN DIG
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PLAINS. PREFER A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
AS SUCH SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO HANG BACK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THIS ENERGY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...APPEARS THE REGION IS HEADED FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUITE COLD WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS ALASKA/WESTERN
CANADA...EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE GATES TO ARCTIC AIR AS THE POLAR
VORTEX RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER EASTERN CANADA.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED FROM ALL TAF SITES WHILE
BOUNTIFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS UP INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR INTO THE 02-05Z TIME RANGE WHEN A QUICK DROP INTO IFR/LIFR
BEGINS ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...MAINLY AT PLN/TVC...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 KTS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR.  SMD

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ008-015-030-033>036-041-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MIZ016>029-031-032.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LHZ349.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LHZ345>348.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
455 AM EST THU JAN 10 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
111100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
455 AM EST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEE ONGOING WATCH FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEE ONGOING
WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.