Snow Advisory 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 312105
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SPREADING SNOW OVER
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MIZ024-029-034-011115-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.080201T0500Z-080202T0000Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HOUGHTON LAKE
405 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...BECOMING MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON ON FRIDAY...
PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ030-035-036-041-042-011115-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.080201T0500Z-080202T0000Z/
ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
405 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...BECOMING MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON ON FRIDAY...
PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

LUTZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 010313
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SPREADING SNOW OVER
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MIZ024-029-030-034>036-041-042-011100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.080201T0500Z-080202T0000Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1013 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...BECOMING MODERATE
TO PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON ON FRIDAY... PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 010833
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MIZ024-029-030-034>036-041-042-012245-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080202T0000Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
333 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MR

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 011144
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MIZ018-022-023-027-028-032-033-020000-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080202T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
644 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ024-029-030-034>036-041-042-020000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080202T0000Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
644 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MR

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 011615
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1115 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MIZ018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080202T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
1115 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH SNOWFALL DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WEST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-55...AND FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES EAST OF I-75. GUSTY EAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL RESULT
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JPB

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 012102
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

MIZ022-027-028-032-033-012215-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080202T0000Z/
OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
402 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-020000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-080202T0000Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
402 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA...BUT MAY ACCUMULATE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BETWEEN 4
PM AND 7 PM BEFORE WINDING DOWN.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JPB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1136 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008

.AVIATION...DIMINISHING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT PRIMARILY THE TVC TERMINAL SITE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
PLN/APN. ON THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING TO SW AND INCREASING MOISTURE
MAY AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS TO PLN/TVC.

ADAM

&&

ADAM

&&

.UPDATE...03Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING...NOW LIFTING UP THROUGH THE
HUDSON BAY AREA. ELONGATED EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
WEDGE OF DRY AIR STRETCHES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOWERED VSBYS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS PERSIST IN THE
SNOWBELTS THIS EVENING. FORECAST ISSUES OVERNIGHT REVOLVE AROUND
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS/GUSTINESS TO FURTHER
SUBSIDE. STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS OUT THERE...RANGING FROM 1 TO 2
MILES WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDE. BUT ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST OF THE CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED...AND PLAN ON CANCELING ADVISORY
IN NW LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 11 PM. MEANWHILE...STILL SOME HEFTIER
LAKE EFFECT BANDS COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
AND WITH GUSTINESS HANGING ON ACROSS THAT AREA LONGEST...WILL KEEP
ADVISORY INTACT FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADAM

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 349 PM.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 973MB LOW ALONG
SOUTHEAST SHORE OF JAMES BAY...EXTENSIVE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD AIR PLUNGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES. AS THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAYS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN TO TAKE ITS
PLACE.

FIRST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT DEALS WITH THE WINDS.  WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACK OFF AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

SECOND ISSUE IS ONGOING MULTIPLE BAND LES.  OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...
BANDS HAVE BEEN NARROW BUT WELL DEFINED...BUT ALSO HAVE BEEN
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK A BIT MORE
WESTERLY.  IN GENERAL...LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO HOLD AROUND
280-290 DEGREES OR SO THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH TARGETS NORTHERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR GREATEST SNOW SHOWER THREAT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOVER AROUND 800-850MB (FORECAST LAKE INDUCED CAPE ABOVE 700 J/KG
THIS EVENING)...DROPPING LATE AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.  BUT THERE IS A WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE SNOWFALL
INTENSITY COULD BE PRETTY GOOD.  COLD 850 TEMPERATURES (AROUND -25C)
WILL LIMIT FLAKE SIZE AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN
KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.  BUT THINK SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF WHITEFISH BAY IS PROBABLE THIS
EVENING.   OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WESTERLY BANDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS AROUND 270 DEGREES.  DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ACROSS THE LAKE...AND COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES LIMITING SNOWFLAKE
SIZE.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARMING
ABOVE -20C OVERNIGHT.  OF COURSE...WITH THAT COMES A DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY (AIDED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO OR BELOW 900MB).
SO THINKING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TONIGHT...IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES
FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  BLOWING AND
DRIFTING STILL A PROBLEM AT MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS IMPACTED BY LAKE
SNOWS...WITH VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND AROUND THE
SOO STILL RUNNING AT OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE.  WOULD LIKE TO LET
CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE AT ZONE ISSUANCE AS WE PUT THIS EVENT TO
BED AND GET READY FOR THE NEXT ONE (WHICH MY LONG TERM COHORT WILL
EXPLAIN MORE ABOUT BELOW)...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO NOT CARRY HEADLINES
SINCE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL RATHER POOR.  SO WILL PUT UP A
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN/CHARLEVOIX/
ANTRIM/OTSEGO COUNTIES.  WILL RUN THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THIS BY MIDNIGHT.

LAST CONCERN IS WIND CHILLS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE 10
BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE...HAD BEEN COLDER EARLIER TODAY BUT
HAVE IMPROVED A BIT.  WILL PROBABLY BE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY
THROUGH THE EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

JPB

LONG TERM ISSUES...THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO
START OUT THE DAY WHILE THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE
RETREAT. ENOUGH SHALLOW COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT (DELTA T/S
AROUND 20C) TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW GOING DURING THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERLY SNOW BELT AREAS EVEN THOUGH DRY AIR (35-45PCT) WILL
BE PRESENT ABOVE THE INVERSION LOCATED AT AROUND 900MB. ANY LES
(LAKE EFFECT SNOW) BANDS PRESENT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON SINCE DELTA T/S DIMINISH TO THE MID TEENS BY MIDDAY. LOW
LEVEL WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN SW DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
ANY LES BANDS NORTH OF WHITEFISH POINT...BUT SHRINKING INSTABILITY
FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS WILL END LES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE STREAMS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...NOT MUCH SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD...AND WILL LOWER HIGHS A BIT
GIVEN A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT WINTER STORM TO TRACK ACROSS
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  POTENT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
CLOSE OFF AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS IT MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO NY STATE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE QG-FORCING/
DEFORMATION SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT SURGE OF LIFT OCCURS WITH THE INITIAL
BLAST OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 285-295K PRESSURE SURFACES LATE
THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE SE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS LIFT OCCURRING
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SOME E/NE FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING FROM
AROUND 10C THURSDAY NIGHT TO 12C ON FRIDAY WHEN COLDER AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE 850MB LOW CENTER. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THEREFORE
LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA WHERE MODELS INDICATE AROUND 0.3
INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP WILL OCCUR. GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND
15:1...AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BELIEVE 4 TO 7 INCHES
COULD FALL OVER GLADWIN/ARENAC/OGEMAW/IOSCO/ALCONA COUNTIES.
AMOUNTS WILL TRAIL OFF NE FROM THIS AREA TO 1 TO 4 ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND UP TO A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN UPPER NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING MOVES IN.  WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE
RIDGE WHILE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE ONCE AGAIN SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL BE PRESENT
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND DURING THE EVENING...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ALBEIT WEAKER SHORTWAVE.  WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW IN THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY OR SO...BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MEAN WESTERN NOAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE THEREAFTER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
PRESENT TO START THE DAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER ONTARIO...BUT WILL PUSH
A SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL
SEND A POCKET OF MODERATE -DIV Q TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH IN THAT IT
GENERATES A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROUGH THAT THEN TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  DO NOT EXACTLY BUY ITS
SOLUTION...BUT SHORTWAVE QG FORCING AND TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITHIN QG DOWNWARD MOTION.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD IN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT DELTA T/S FOR LAKE EFFECT JUSTIFIES LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SW FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE EASTWARD MOVING WEST COAST TROUGH.  PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY THOUGH.

WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY MAKE IT NORTH SO THAT A MIX OR EVEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN LOWER BEFORE
COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TO BEGIN THINKING ABOUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONCE AGAIN.

MPC

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ030-035-036-041-042.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ008.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1048 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
311100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1048 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
ALSO BE DANGEROUSLY COLD...RUNNING FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. SEE
ONGOING ADVISORY FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST TO OCCUR
EAST OF A HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA LINE.  SEE ONGOING WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ALL SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ADAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW EAST JORDAN       45.17N 85.19W
01/30/2008  M61.00 MPH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEAK GUST THIS MORNING.

0600 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 SW EAST JORDAN        45.15N 85.15W
01/30/2008  E9.0 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            18 HR TOTAL THROUGH 6 PM.

&&

SWR