Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2008

Small Craft Advisory 83, NWS Gaylord, MI

September 13, 2008

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this small craft advisory at Sep 13, 2008, 3:41 PM EDT. It took effect at Sep 14, 2008, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 38 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 13, 2008, 3:41 PM EDT (19:41 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 14, 2008, 2:00 AM EDT
Expired
Sep 15, 2008, 3:40 PM EDT
In force
38 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

141 
WHUS73 KAPX 131941
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
341 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

LSZ321-140400-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.080914T0600Z-080914T1400Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
341 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN FOR A PERIOD ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JZ
9 follow-up statements
110 
WHUS73 KAPX 140145
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

LSZ321-140945-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.080914T0600Z-080914T1400Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
945 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY. 

BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN FOR A PERIOD ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
JK
046 
WHUS73 KAPX 140848
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
448 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LHZ346-348-349-LMZ341-LSZ322-141700-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.080914T1900Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
448 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. WAVES
WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET...OR LOCALLY HIGHER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ345-347-LMZ323-342-344>346-141700-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
448 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5
FEET...OR LOCALLY HIGHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ321-141700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
448 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
481 
WHUS73 KAPX 141453
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1053 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LHZ345-347-LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-142100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1053 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES WILL
INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER WAVES OF 4
TO 7 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ346-348-349-LMZ341-LSZ322-142100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.080914T1900Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1053 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
623 
WHUS73 KAPX 141945
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LHZ345-347-LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-150300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
345 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL
INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER WAVES OF 4
TO 7 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ346-348-349-LMZ341-LSZ322-150300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
345 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
NORTH TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
658 
WHUS73 KAPX 150219
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1019 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LHZ345-347-LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-151030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1019 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ346-348-349-LMZ341-LSZ322-151030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1019 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
315 
WHUS73 KAPX 150331
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LHZ347-151145-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0018.080915T0331Z-080915T1500Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1131 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ348-151145-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0018.080915T0331Z-080915T1500Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1131 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-151145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1131 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHER WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED SOUTH
OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ346-349-LMZ341-LSZ322-151145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1131 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
552 
WHUS73 KAPX 150852
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
452 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

LHZ347-348-151700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
452 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS BY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...CHOPPY WAVES OF 4 TO 6
FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-151500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
452 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...CHOPPY WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ346-349-LMZ341-LSZ322-151500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
452 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS BY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...CHOPPY WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


SMD
171 
WHUS73 KAPX 151445
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

LHZ346-LMZ341-LSZ322-151545-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-151545-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T1500Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

LHZ349-152100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T2100Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS BY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...CHOPPY WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-152100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS BY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...CHOPPY WAVES OF 4 TO 6
FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
512 
WHUS73 KAPX 151940
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
340 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

LHZ349-152045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-080915T2100Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
340 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

LHZ347-348-152045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0083.000000T0000Z-080915T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
340 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

JZ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 13, 3:30 PM EDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 13, 3:30 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 330 PM/

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IT/S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
DEAL OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA. PART OF REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CLIP
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY...WITH MORE RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

JZ/MPC

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 PM/...TONIGHT

SURFACE LOW PASSING A LITTLE SOUTH OF LA CROSSE WI THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE-WARD...PASSING OVER GRB ON IT/S WAY TO
EASTERN UPPER MI BY MIDNIGHT...AND NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY BY MORNING.
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL BRIEFLY ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GOES THRU OVERNIGHT. INITIAL AREA OF
RAIN WORKING THRU NORTHERN MI NOW...ACTIVITY MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD
BACK IN WI. BAND OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDS FROM
CHICAGOLAND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 00Z/8PM THIS
EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WANES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET EASES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH A TENDENCY FOR DRYING ABOVE 700MB.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW THAT LEVEL...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE PASSING LOW WILL LEAD TO
CLOUDY SKIES...AND WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...ALONG
WITH FOG.

THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS IN MN/WESTERN WI. EASTERN UPPER MI IS PROGGED TO GET
GRAZED BY THE BETTER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS LIFTING ACROSS SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...IT
WILL TAKE LITTLE FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP. THUS...BEST RAINS OF
THIS EVENT FOR EASTERN UPPER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...MAINLY EARLY.

THE OTHER POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOT IS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. NAM PROGS THE
ONGOING BAND OF HEAVY RAIN DOWNSTATE TO DUMP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM SOLUTION...SUGGESTING HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL GET CLOSE TO THE FAR SE ZONES DURING THE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GLADWIN/STANDISH/TAWAS.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED. FOR NOW...WILL HANG ONTO A
CHANCE OF THUNDER ONLY IN THOSE FAR SE ZONES...AND WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS DOWN THERE AS WELL.

COLD ADVECTION WILL GET GOING LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT SOON OR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SHARPLY LOWER TEMPS AT THE END OF AN OTHERWISE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MAINLY MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 330 PM/...SUNDAY ONWARD

SUN THRU TUE...MAIN FCST CONCERN OBVIOUSLY CENTERED ON IKES
REMNANTS SUN AFTN/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/POSSIBLE FROST CONCERNS
HEADING INTO MON NIGHT. AFTER COMING ONSHORE VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IKE NOW RAPIDLY ON THE MOVE NORTHWARD...BEING STEERED
AROUND EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ACCELERATED BY SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE HEELS OF 70+ KNOT JETLET. 12Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO IKE BECOMING
RAPIDLY EXTRATROPICAL/ABSORBED INTO ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE LATE
TONIGHT...ALL THE WHILE FURTHER ACCELERATING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD
LAKE ERIE BY 00Z MONDAY AS REMNANT ENERGY PHASES WITH INCOMING UPR
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. THIS TRACK PLACES IMPRESSIVE 700-500MB
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEP LAYER FGEN BANDING ACRS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA...LIKELY ENHANCED GIVEN STRONG 850MB CONVERGENCE IN
A DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT (PWATS PUSHING 2+ INCHES JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA)...AND ALSO AIDED BY STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT PER
PLACEMENT OF 120+ KNOT JET ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD. END RESULT
SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...TAPERING
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST PER LOCATION ON THE DOWNWARD BRANCH OF
FGEN CIRCULATION. IN FACT...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY BE SURPRISED TO SEE
FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AND MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AVOID ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP GIVEN STRONGLY SUBSIDENT REGIME JUST OUTSIDE BEST
FORCING...THOUGH GIVEN PUSH OF QG SUPPORT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
(AS THE UPR TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE REGION)...CERTAINLY CANNOT CALL
IT DRY AT THIS POINT.

RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ONSET OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING. FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO
THE AFTN OF INTEREST FOR POSSIBLE LAKE PROCESSES (H85 TEMPS TAKE A
DIP TOWARD 2C/925MB TEMPS ABOUT 4C)...THOUGH INCREASINGLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THE LATE AFTN AND CONTINUATION OF
STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION MAY JUST PRECLUDE MUCH IN WAY OF
ANYTHING...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU FOR INLAND AREAS WITH STRONG THERMAL TROUGHING OVERHEAD.
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN HOLDING AFTN TEMPS INTO THE 50S-MID
60S...WHICH THEN SETS UP POTENTIAL COLD TEMPS HEADING INTO MON NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. CURIOUS TO NOTE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALREADY DIPPING INTO THE 20S FOR THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS...SO CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD READINGS INLAND
LOCATIONS...BUT LESS THAN IDEAL PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE ACRS THE
MIDWEST AND POTENTIAL FOR TIGHTENING GRADIENT THRU THE NIGHT
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

LATER PERIODS (TUE NIGHT THRU SAT)...MAINLY DRY PERIOD OF WX STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK THRU THE EXTENDED...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILD EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH A RETURN TO TROUGHING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING QUITE A
BIT WITH A FEW SPECIFICS...NAMELY THE DEGREE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE
PAC NORTHWEST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING WEAKNESS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THRU MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE MOST
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...BREAKING CONTINUITY
AND CLOSING OFF A RATHER DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE
THE UKMET/GFS/GEFS MEAN HOLD ONTO A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
ACRS THE EAST...EFFECTIVELY FLATTENING AND SLOWING THE APPROACH OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ALLOWING FOR A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPR
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD OVER EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THANKFULLY...FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...LITTLE WOULD
CHANGE WITH EITHER SOLUTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPS...AS OVERALL
LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING HOLDS FIRM THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THAT
SAID...SHOULD THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OVER THE EAST COME TO
PASS...ENTIRELY POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE PICTURE
THU/FRI TIMEFRAME AS SOUTHWARD DISPLACED POLAR VORTEX SHUNTS A SFC
BOUNDARY THRU THE REGION. GIVEN PLENTY OF DISCREPANCIES...AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL SIMPLY KEEP THINGS DRY AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 330 PM/

BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER N TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR WHITEFISH BAY ONLY. LAKE MI COAST OF NW LOWER
WILL BE CLOSE...BUT PROBABLY COME UP A LITTLE SHORT. THE REMNANTS OF
IKE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE LAKES LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER
NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY TO GALE
FORCE ESPECIALLY ON LAKE HURON.

JZ/DL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 131 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW IN
NE IOWA WILL MOVE TO NEAR GREEN BAY WI THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT. PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO WORK INTO THE
REGION...WITH ATTENDANT RAIN/FOG/LOW CIGS. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE TONIGHT. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW GRADUALLY LIFT CIGS AND VSBYS.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 13, 3:27 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
141100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
327 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

JZ

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2008Every small craft advisory in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.