Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 260328
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

MIC009-089-260400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080526T0400Z/
ANTRIM MI-LEELANAU MI-
1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FOR LEELANAU AND ANTRIM COUNTIES...

AT 1124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR GOOD HARBOR...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRAVERSE CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OMENA AROUND 1135 PM EDT...
  TORCH LAKE AND KEWADIN AROUND 1150 PM EDT...
  CENTRAL LAKE AROUND 1155 PM EDT...  
  BELLAIRE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4487 8545 4499 8542 4506 8554 4487 8563
      4489 8605 4499 8594 4497 8582 4520 8564
      4520 8554 4509 8558 4500 8541 4521 8541
      4521 8524 4512 8521 4512 8487 4487 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 261DEG 41KT 4498 8571

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 260358
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1158 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

MIC009-089-260402-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080526T0400Z/
ANTRIM MI-LEELANAU MI-
1158 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LEELANAU AND ANTRIM COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD 
WEAKENED. THE WARNING WILL THEREFORE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STAY 
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY ADDITIONAL 
WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4487 8545 4499 8542 4506 8554 4487 8563
      4489 8605 4499 8594 4497 8582 4520 8564
      4520 8554 4509 8558 4500 8541 4521 8541
      4521 8524 4512 8521 4512 8487 4487 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 261DEG 41KT 4502 8533

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.UPDATE...ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN SW FLOW. STORMS HAVE HAD TENDENCY TO
WEAKEN OVER NRN LAKE MI AS THEY MOVE OUT OF BEST 850 MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS WI AND
THE U.P.. BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER WE/LL SEE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS UNLIKELY...CONSISTENT WITH SPC DAY ONE
OUTLOOK. 850 MB FLOW RAPIDLY VEERS FROM SW TO W BY 06Z...AND
WHILE 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
REGION...SHEAR WITHIN 850/500 MB LAYER WILL DIMINISH. IT APPEARS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/DOWNPOURS MAY BE A SOMEWHAT BIGGER
ISSUE...AS 850 MB WINDS AND 850/300 MB MEAN LAYER WINDS ALIGN
THEMSELVES...RESULTING IN SMALL CORFIDI VECTORS AROUND 06Z -- JUST
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE PLOWS THROUGH. THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SUBTLE
SIGNS OF TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING CELLS ACROSS PARTS OF WI.
THERMODYNAMIC REGIME IS DECENT -- THOUGH NOT GREAT -- WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCH...K INDICES AROUND 35...AND 850 MB DEW POINTS NEAR
+12C.

UPSHOT...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT IT/S NOT
LIKELY.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PLN/TVC/APN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY APPROACHES REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY AT TVC AND
PLN. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS REGION MIDDAY MONDAY...TURNING
WINDS FROM SW TO NW. CAA DURING THE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH
STRONG LATE MAY SUN/MIXING...COULD RESULT IN NW WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KTS.

SMITH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...WEATHER ACTIVITY ABOUT TO PICK IT UP A NOTCH AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KICKED INTO HIGH GEAR OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE/DEVELOPING WARM AND COLD FRONT. INITIAL BATCH OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTED IN SOME LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SUBSEQUENT
SECONDARY SURGE RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...AN ENJOYABLE WARM DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND DECENT WAA HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES MAKING
A RUN AT THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST
CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH SOME
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...AS NORTHERN PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THIS AFTERNOON...BESIDES AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THREAT OVER
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SPECIFIC RED FLAG WARNING
CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN MET...CALLS FROM LAND MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
STILL INDICATE LOW FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH REPORTS OF TWO
SMALL FIRES IN THE VICINITY OF HUBBARD LAKE. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO WORSEN WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA...GIVEN LAND MANAGEMENT INSIGHT...FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO
AHEAD AND LET RED FLAG WARNING RIDE THROUGH ITS DURATION.

TONIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PLOWS
NORTHEAST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR VALUES CO-LOCATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE TONGUE HAS RESULTED IN SPC PLACING A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EXTREME WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND EASTERN MINNESOTA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION... INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SET TO DEVELOP AS 115+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PIVOTS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WOULD EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE PROFILES
TONIGHT (PWAT VALUES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES AND
11C RESPECTIVELY) AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AREA...HAVE
BUMPED CHANCES TO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS SLIGHT RISK TONIGHT JUST
CLIPPING THE NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND POINT BETSIE...THINKING THAT
APPROACHING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE SURFACE BASED IN THIS AREA
BEFORE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS IN. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
LIFTED PARCELS CENTERED ON 900MB SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE...COUPLED WITH GOOD 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45
KNOTS AND 500MB WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS
ARE RATHER HIGH (12KFT)...SHALLOW NATURE OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY
ALLOW A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

MSB

MONDAY...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z...EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES BY 18Z. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO SRN
LWR MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING AND SUPPORT MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUPPLIED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING...OF AN
80KT 500 MB JET STREAK AND 850MB TROUGH SWINGING OVER NRN MI.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS GOOD
SFC AND MID LEVEL MSTR IN PLACE OVER THE STATE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. 850MB DEW PTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10/12C WITH SFC
DEW PTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. LIFTED INDEX AND SHOWALTER INDEX
EARLY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -3C...WHILE CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL
UNDER 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850MB DEW PTS WILL DRY TO UNDER 4C ACROSS
THE REGION...WHILE SFC DEW PTS DRY TO THE UPPER 40S BY 00Z. OVERALL
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. WILL THEN MENTION AFTERNOON DRY
CONDS FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO GAYLORD DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SRN MOST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRYING WILL SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER ONTARIO AND
LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...SLIDING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z
TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING SOME INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL MSTR IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER NRN MI
OVERNIGHT (INCREASING TO AROUND 70 PCT BTW 850/500MB). HOWEVER WILL
ONLY MENTION SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FEATURE DUE
TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT AND SFC RIDGING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AND CALM HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC. AREAS WITH LIMITED CLOUDS COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE
THOSE WITH CLOUD COVER COULD REMAIN IN THE MID 40S. OVERALL WILL
TREND TOWARD LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DOMINATE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING WEST INTO THE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVR NRN
MICHIGAN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR IN PLACE OVER THE STATE AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE PASSES THROUGH. 850/500MB RH WILL BE AROUND 50 PCT WITH
850MB DEW PTS DROPPING TO AROUND -4C AND SFC DEW PTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR. OVERALL WILL MENTION DRY CONDS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S ACROSS THE CWA...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING THROUGH
850MB WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 0C. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DRY SFC DEW PTS...CALM WINDS AND RATHER
COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS. WILL MENTION NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 34 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND 850 MB ALONG WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER LAKES
REGION INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE DRY THRU THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AS SOUNDINGS
AGAIN SHOW GOOD MIXING THROUGH 850 MB WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
4C. WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY SFC DEW PTS. LOWS SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER.

THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER THE STRAITS SUNDAY MORNING...
EXITING INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL WILL MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (MAINLY FOR THE
MORNING PERIOD SUNDAY) AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION. WILL
MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD DUE TO GOOD MIXING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THROUGH 850 MB...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SWR

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.

LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
437 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
261145-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
437 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE SEE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR ALL
AREAS TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEST OF US-131...MAY BE
SEVERE TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MEMORIAL DAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE MORNING
...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM HAIL AND STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MSB