Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Gaylord, MI

June 21, 2008Arenac County, Gladwin County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 21, 2008, 6:45 PM EDT for Arenac County, Gladwin County, Michigan. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2008, 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: Jun 21, 2008, 7:35 PM EDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Gaylord, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Arenac County, MI, Gladwin County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 27 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1258 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 61 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KAPX 212245
SVRAPX
MIC011-051-212345-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SV.W.0074.080621T2245Z-080621T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ARENAC COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
  GLADWIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODEN SHOE VILLAGE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF ALGER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALGER...
  STERLING...
  STANDISH...
  MAPLE RIDGE...
  OMER...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4393 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4394 8417
      4396 8438 4409 8438 4415 8434 4414 8381
      4397 8385 4395 8388 4393 8388 4392 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 268DEG 20KT 4402 8425

$$

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 212306
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
705 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

MIC011-051-212345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080621T2345Z/
ARENAC MI-GLADWIN MI-
705 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SMALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM STERLING TO 5 MILES EAST OF WOODEN SHOE...MOVING EAST 
AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STERLING...
  MAPLE RIDGE...
  STANDISH...
  OMER...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4393 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4394 8417
      4396 8435 4415 8419 4414 8381 4397 8385
      4395 8388 4393 8388 4392 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 286DEG 14KT 4407 8406 4401 8409
          4396 8423

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 212328
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

MIC011-051-212345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080621T2345Z/
ARENAC MI-GLADWIN MI-
728 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...

AT 726 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL 
SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 
OMER TO STANDISH TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 
20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STANDISH...
  OMER...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4393 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4394 8417
      4395 8426 4411 8408 4410 8382 4397 8385
      4395 8388 4393 8388 4392 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 286DEG 14KT 4406 8393 4397 8405
          4390 8421

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 212335
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

MIC011-051-212344-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080621T2345Z/
ARENAC MI-GLADWIN MI-
734 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

AT 734 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAVE
WEAKENED. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 9 PM. 
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY 
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4393 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4394 8417
      4395 8426 4411 8408 4410 8382 4397 8385
      4395 8388 4393 8388 4392 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 286DEG 14KT 4405 8390 4396 8402
          4389 8418

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 21, 3:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 3:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON SYNOPSIS...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN FORMING SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COMBINED LAKE BREEZE ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY.  MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER HAS STAYED IN THE CLEAR IN WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER AROUND TO GREEN BAY...REMAINS TO
BE SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS CAN SURVIVE A TRIP OVER THE LAKE (SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT).

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...IN GENERAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE DIURNAL
TREND AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO WANE THIS EVENING.  WILL CARRY A
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP FOR NORTHWEST LOWER IN CASE
ACTIVITY TRYING TO PROPAGATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DUMP A FEW SHOWERS.  CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPINS ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT WILL HAVE THIS THREAT COVERED WITH
THE SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS.

JPB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO
WILL ROTATE SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
SWING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE MORNING WITH THESE
FEATURES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5-7.0C/KM WITH WEAK 25KT H8
LLJ POINTING INTO NW LOWER/NRN LK MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH COOL
POOL ALOFT OF -18C TO -19C AND DAYTIME HEATING...THIS WILL
PRIMARILY BE AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EVENT. POOR 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15-20KTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY LONG LIVED/
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WET BULBS AROUND 8500FT WITH MLCAPES
BETWEEN 800-1100 J/KG WITH A 71/53 PARCEL WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY
OF PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH A FEW CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...TO MAYBE
AN INCH. STORMS COULD FIRE AS EARLY AS NOON...POSSIBLY AROUND LAKE
BREEZES INITIALLY...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
CONGREGATE ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ROUGHLY FROM CADILLAC TO
ALPENA. STORMS WILL DIE OFF INTO THE EVENING AND BECOME ISOLATED
BY THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LAYING
ACROSS NE LOWER...BUT DID NOT GET TOO CUTE YET...AND LEFT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE...OF MAINLY SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SLOWING TREND SEEN IN SWEEPING THE
UPPER/SFC TROUGHING TO THE EAST...AND HAS RESULTED IN RE-INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS A SLIVER OF NE LOWER FROM
HTL-APN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL COOL AIR ALOFT...ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZING IN THIS AREA DUE TO LAKE BREEZES
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSING FEATURES. ANOTHER 600-900 J/KG IS POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS THAN 20KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AND WET BULBS AROUND 8500 FEET. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ONCE AGAIN. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF TROUGHING...COULD
CERTAINLY BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ANYTHING AS OF YET. HAVE TO BE
MORE SURE OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TUESDAY ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE
LONGER TERM...WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ROCKIES. HEIGHTS DO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE FIRST OF
TWO SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MAINLY WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND ARRIVES AROUND FRIDAY AND MAY BE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER/MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE. WILL FOCUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AROUND TYPICAL
NORMALS.

SMD

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 4:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
221000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
415 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF AN ALPENA TO HOUGHTON LAKE LINE THROUGH 8 PM.  HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF HAIL TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

JPB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 21, 5:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
500 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HAIL             4 NE HOUGHTON LAKE      44.34N 84.70W
06/21/2008  M0.75 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   PUBLIC

&&

JZ

Local storm report, Jun 21, 5:02 PM EDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
502 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             LUPTON                  44.43N 84.02W
06/21/2008  M0.50 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JZ

Local storm report, Jun 21, 5:22 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
522 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             5 W HALE                44.38N 83.91W
06/21/2008  M0.88 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JZ

Local storm report, Jun 21, 5:48 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 S WHITTEMORE          44.20N 83.80W
06/21/2008  M0.50 INCH       IOSCO              MI   AIRPLANE PILOT

&&

JZ

Local storm report, Jun 21, 6:12 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
612 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             TAWAS CITY              44.27N 83.52W
06/21/2008  M0.88 INCH       IOSCO              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JZ

Local storm report, Jun 21, 6:38 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             3 E GLENNIE             44.57N 83.66W
06/21/2008  M0.50 INCH       ALCONA             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 1:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Roscommon	39 min
Jun 21, 2:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency, Oscoda	41 min
Jun 21, 2:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Crawford, Ogemaw, Oscoda, Roscommon	43 min
Jun 21, 2:39 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		96 min
Jun 21, 2:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency, Oscoda	62 min
Jun 21, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Alcona	16 min
Jun 21, 3:47 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		45 min
Jun 21, 4:51 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		54 min
Jun 21, 5:13 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		25 min
Jun 21, 5:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Iosco, Ogemaw	49 min
Jun 21, 5:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Alcona, Oscoda	40 min
Jun 21, 6:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Alcona	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.