Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 152151
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
550 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

MIC019-055-089-152215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-080615T2215Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE MI-BENZIE MI-LEELANAU MI-
550 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR LEELANAU...BENZIE AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLATTE TOWNSHIP...OR 4 MILES EAST OF 
EMPIRE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CEDAR...
  FOUCH...
  BINGHAM...

AT 544 PM...PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM 3 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF EMPIRE.  IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4476 8610 4484 8608 4488 8609 4489 8608
      4489 8609 4491 8608 4494 8561 4487 8564
      4483 8564 4471 8567 4473 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 263DEG 28KT 4480 8589

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE AFTN ONGOING WITH EARLIER ROUND OF STORMS
EXITING ACRS LAKE HURON...BUT SECOND LINE UNDERWAY IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. 17Z APX RAOB HIGHLIGHTS
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH A 74/50 PARCEL GIVING ROUGHLY 800-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND A NOTABLE UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR OWING TO ARRIVAL OF
500-300MB SPEED MAX. APPEARS AN ACTIVE EVENING ON TAP AS FRONT
SLICES THRU THE REGION WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50
KNOTS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...NAMELY
WITH A WIND THREAT PER HIGHLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...AND LARGE
HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS (10.1KFT OFF 17Z
RAOB...FALLING FURTHER INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ONSET OF WEAK COLD
ADVECTION). THEREAFTER...NOT MUCH OF NOTE AS FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND
COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES. UPSTREAM SATELLITE PICS THIS AFTN TELL THE
STORY ABOUT CLOUD POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STRATOCU (PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES) LIKELY TO MAKE A
RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN POST-07Z TIMEFRAME. COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH QUICK SHOT OF WEAK 700-500MB -DIVQ AND
UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ANYTHING LIKELY TO REMAIN
ISOLATED. TEMPS IFFY PENDING CLOUD COVER...BUT MODEST COLD ADVECTION
(H85 TEMPS PLUNGING TO +3C TO +5C BY 12Z) SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT
READINGS IN 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH.

LAWRENCE

LATER PERIODS...AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT TYPE OF ACTIVE WX IS ON THE
WAY FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO...GRAZING BY THE NORTH SHORES OF SUPERIOR AND HURON
LATE MONDAY THRU EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THRU EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
CURRENT WX NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR PROBABLY PROVIDES A PRETTY GOOD
PREVIEW. TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD COOL-AND-SHOWERY
FORECAST. MAIN SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY...AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE SCT POPS ALL AREAS AT ALL
TIMES...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
(WHICH CATCH THE BRUNT OF THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND BETTER MOISTURE).
SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY IS DEEPEST AND
MIGHT REACH -20C (IT WILL TAKE SOME WORK ACCORDING TO THE NAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT IT IS MID JUNE AND ALMOST AT THE ANNUAL SOLAR MAX).

WILL STAY TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE...NAM PROGS 850MB
TEMPS AS LOW AS -1C OVER EASTERN UPPER MI TUESDAY MORNING().
PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE NAM...BUT SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL NOT ESCAPE THE 50S. MOST SPOTS IN THE 60S
MONDAY...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE. MINS 40S TO NEAR 50.

REST OF THE FORECAST...COOLISH AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN ZONES INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH DRY WX
FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME ACTIVE WX WILL DEVELOP IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
RETURN FLOW TRIES TO GET GOING. BUT FOR NOW...THE FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS
TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT BOTHER US. SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED DRY...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND CLIMO. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS POTENTIALLY AWFULLY NICE. CROSS YOUR FINGERS.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 122 PM SUN JUN 15...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING...SPARKING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ROUGHLY 18Z THRU 03Z TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERALL...BUT LOCALLY MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORMS
(WHICH COULD BE SEVERE AS WELL). COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT
OVERNIGHT SHOULD EASILY LEAD TO STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD MORNING AND THEN THRU 18Z TOMORROW...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOW
END VFR BUT POTENTIALLY MVFR AT TIMES.

LAWRENCE

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
161200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN PARTS OF MANISTEE AND WEXFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE PASS ON REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SMITH