Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 260154
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
954 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

MIC031-141-260230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080426T0230Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-PRESQUE ISLE MI-
954 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
FOR PRESQUE ISLE AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES...

AT 950 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ONAWAY STATE PARK...OR 3 MILES NORTH OF ONAWAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HURON BEACH...
  FORTY MILE POINT...
  P H HOEFT STATE PARK...
  ROGERS CITY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4525 8416 4525 8424 4533 8446 4567 8439
      4568 8437 4558 8411 4551 8409 4551 8392
      4543 8379 4543 8370 4541 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 224DEG 32KT 4543 8419

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 260210
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1010 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

MIC031-141-260220-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080426T0230Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-PRESQUE ISLE MI-
1010 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PRESQUE ISLE AND CHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 1010 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
WEAKENED. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4525 8416 4525 8424 4533 8446 4567 8439
      4568 8437 4558 8411 4551 8409 4551 8392
      4543 8379 4543 8370 4541 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 224DEG 32KT 4553 8405

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
724 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

.AVIATION...ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
AROUND 08Z. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KTS AND HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR WITHIN MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY...DROPPING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH
CIGS AND VSBYS GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW VFR THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 PM
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. THIS IS
FROM THE SECOND MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. THE LINE LOOKS TO BE RIDING THE
WARM FRONT THAT IS STRETCHED ACROSS N LOWER. THE LOW THAT THE WARM
FRONT IS ATTACHED TO, HAS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES OUT OF W
WISCONSIN AND INTO SE OKLAHOMA.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE THE MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW MOVES OUT OF THE W WISCONSIN AND INTO W LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z/SAT. A STRETCH OF CLEARING SKIES IN S WISCONSIN
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LAKE AND HELP TO LET TEMPERATURES
RECOVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN, THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS MARCH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT TO I-75 BY 06Z. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR AXIS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER,
THE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS (LOWER 60S F) AND THE MODERATE TO HIGH
DEWPOINTS (10 TO 12C) AT 850 MB THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION, WITH THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 KNOTS WOULD ENOUGH
ROTATION TO HELP THE STORMS POSSIBLY GET SOME HAIL. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER THE WIND WILL GET TO THE SFC. IF THE CONVECTION IS
ELEVATED THEN NO, BUT IF THE CONVECTION IS SFC BASED THEN AT LEAST
THE EARLY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THE CONVECTION CAN BE SFC
BASED, IM WAGERING THAT IT WONT BE AND THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH FUSS.

LUTZ

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...A MUCH
COOLER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AMOUNT OF WARMING
DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE LATE SUNDAY RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATURDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CLEARS EASTERN ZONES BY MID MORNING
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BETWEEN -2 AND -5 C BY 00Z SUN.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
EVEN SLOWLY FALL. HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO
THE UPPER 50S EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY MORNING
CLEARING WILL BE OFFSET BY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (CU BUILDUP). WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED IF THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN WET SNOW
FLURRIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH GALES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT A LOT GOING ON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CHILLY WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ENERGY CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY SPIN UP AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE HURON. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
SENDING VARIED SIGNALS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 12Z
GFS AND ENSEMBLES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND DEEPER AT THE
SURFACE WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH FLATTER ALOFT WITH LITTLE
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS ON PAR THEN IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IF THE 12Z ECMWF ENDS UP BEING A BETTER SOLUTION THEN
THERE WILL BE A MUCH FASTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. FOR
NOW HAVE HEDGED TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION WITH HIGHS OF ONLY THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WED...MID TO UPPER 50S THU AND UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON FRI. NO POPS DURING THIS TIME BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT.

SULLIVAN

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
930 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
261000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
930 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALPENA TO GLADWIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS COULD GUST TO GALE FORCE WITHIN THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE EARLY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
447 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             1 W EAST TAWAS          44.28N 83.50W
04/25/2008  M0.88 INCH       IOSCO              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL BUT A FEW HAIL STONES UP TO NICKEL
            SIZE.

&&

ADAM