Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1141 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ISSUED 701 AM...A COLD WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SURGE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...AND PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ISSUED 1141 AM...PUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES AND NOWCASTS AS THE LINE HAS SOLIDIFIED.
WITH THE FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 14500FT, NOT EXPECTING HAIL. SHEAR
ISNT REAL GREAT EITHER, SO WINDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SVR CRITERIA,
BUT CANT RULE OUT A PULSE STORM. RAINFALL FROM SPOTTERS HAS BEEN
ABOUT 1/2 INCH AN HOUR.

LUTZ

&&

.LONG TERM...ISSUED 336 AM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SECOND WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY...USHERING IN A STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR. MODELS STILL
HAVE A LOT OF DISCREPANCY ON EXACTLY HOW COLD THINGS GET...BUT IT
SHOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF REALLY COOL AIR (850MB TEMPS  +4C) THAT
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO REALLY GET LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
GOING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF
THE DAY (SUNDAY AFTERNOON). GOING TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES...BUT BELIEVE MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VERY COOL NIGHTS (40S) AND
PLEASANT DAYS (HIGHS 70S). ALSO GOING TO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CLOUD FREE SKIES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PERHAPS BE ONE OF THE NICER STRETCHES OF WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

KAS

&&

.MARINE...ISSUED 1141 AM...WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS. WINDS MAY COME UP ON THE LAKE HURON
SIDE OF THINGS. WILL HAVE TO LOOK THAT OVER, BUT WILL LEAVE THAT
DOWN FOR NOW.

LUTZ

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701AM...FOR 12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO KPLN/KTVC THIS MORNING...THEN REACH KAPN
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS THIS EVENING AND WINDS BECOME WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT.

KAS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1120 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
241115-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1120 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COASTLINE...MAINLY ALONG US-2 WEST OF ST IGNACE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

KAS/LUTZ