Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 091533
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1133 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

MIC097-091615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-080809T1615Z/
MACKINAC MI-
1133 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT
FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...

AT 1130 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HESSEL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARQUETTE ISLAND...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4608 8436 4597 8422 4598 8425 4594 8426
      4595 8432 4592 8438 4595 8441 4591 8444
      4597 8442 4598 8444 4596 8447 4598 8450
      4596 8453 4602 8455 4611 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 326DEG 22KT 4598 8444

$$

KAS

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 091552
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

MIC097-091603-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-080809T1615Z/
MACKINAC MI-
1153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1153 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4608 8436 4597 8422 4598 8425 4594 8426
      4595 8432 4592 8438 4595 8441 4591 8444
      4597 8442 4598 8444 4596 8447 4598 8450
      4596 8453 4602 8455 4611 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1553Z 326DEG 22KT 4588 8434

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
741 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING QUITE GUSTY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 14Z WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREAK LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES BACK INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING LOWERING CEILINGS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 10
KNOTS.

LAWRENCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...QUITE CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN OVR THE NEXT 36
HOURS...WITH MAIN SHOW DRIVEN BY IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
MIGRATING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...PLACED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS OF 06Z. RAPID UPTICK IN 700-300MB QG
UPWARD FORCING/SFC-800MB CONVERGENCE DRIVING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BAND
OF SHRA ACRS THE EASTERN U.P. WITH RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
JUST SOUTH OF PRIMARY PRECIP AXIS ALONG NOSE OF WEAKISH LOW LEVEL
JET/EDGE OF APPROACHING 6.5-7C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND
IN NOTABLE THERMAL AXIS JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING H85 FRONT. PRIMARY
FCST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY PRECIP THRU
THE DAY/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES...AND CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS/LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

BEST UPR SUPPORT/SFC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE RAPID PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH CONTINUED GREAT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DRIVING PRECIP AXIS THRU THE ENTIRE CWA. GOING LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN LINE THRU 15Z OR SO...BEFORE PRONOUNCED
900-500MB DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO EARLY
AFTN. REMNANT 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT/MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME SHOULD LEND A HAND TO SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY...WITH SMALL HAIL
IN ANY STRONGER STORMS PER LOW FREEZING LEVELS (10KFT).
OTHERWISE...DESPITE ONSET OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...SUBSTANTIALLY
COLDER AIR SPILLING IN ALOFT (H85 TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD 5C BY 21Z)
SHOULD RAPIDLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/STRATOCU DECK. AS BETTER
RH PLUME WRAPS BACK IN POST-18Z...SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BEST LAPSE RATE PLUME SLIDES OVERHEAD...AND
OBVIOUSLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER/MORE SMALL HAIL PER H5 TEMPS
DIPPING TO -22C. TEMPS SOMEWHAT TRICKY PENDING DEGREE OF SUNSHINE IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH GIVEN SIGNIFICANT ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION...HAVE LOWERED NUMBERS MOST SPOTS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DECIDED TO INSERT POP MENTION THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUN AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG MOISTURE
PLUME/DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTACT AS UPR LOW ONLY SLOWLY
SPINS SOUTH OVR LAKE HURON...AND SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SLIPS THRU
THE REGION. LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL REMAINS RATHER HIGH GIVEN H85
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 5C (DELTA TS PUSHING 14 TO 17C AND MEAN
850-700MB RH WELL IN RANGE AT 80%...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY FROM
010 DEGREES. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ALSO THERE WITH FAVORABLE
LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY YIELDING EQL HEIGHTS ROUGHLY 12KFT WHILE
H85 FLOW ONLY 25 TO 30 KTS...WHILE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL VORTICITY VERY
HIGH GIVEN POSITION OF UPR LOW. THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
COME EARLY SUN AS BETTER RH PLUME BEGINS TO DEPART...THOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD AGAIN
ALLOW PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU (AND MAYBE A FEW MORE SHOWERS?) INTO THE
AFTN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT TWO LOWER HURON ZONES FROM
LATE MORNING THRU TONIGHT GIVEN RAPID UPTICK IN OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY HEALTHY WINDS THRU THE LOW LEVELS. EFFECTS
SHOULD BE QUITE PRONOUNCED ON GRAND TRAVERSE BAY WITH EFFECTIVE FLOW
FROM 340 DEGREES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADVISORY SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE
LATER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT
TURNING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHERLY.

SUN NIGHT ONWARD...FEW CHANGES MADE TO GOING FCST AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PEG SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ACRS THE REGION WITH
DEPARTING UPR LOW AND FRESH HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
HELPING BUILD RIDGING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED
HIGH PRES FCST TO SLIDE BASICALLY OVERHEAD MON INTO TUE...WITH DRY
WX AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS (THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP ON THE HORIZON).

LAWRENCE

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ345>347.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1117 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
101000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1117 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WHITEFISH BAY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WEATHER DEEMED SIGNIFICANT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

KAS