Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2008, 6:53 PM EDT for Alpena County, Montmorency County, Michigan. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 20, 2008, 6:53 PM EDT (22:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 20, 2008, 7:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 52 min
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Alpena County, MI, Montmorency County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 624 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 524 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 61 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KAPX 202253 SVRAPX MIC007-119-202345- /O.NEW.KAPX.SV.W.0126.080720T2253Z-080720T2345Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 653 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MONTMORENCY COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ALPENA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 745 PM EDT * AT 650 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRASS LAKE...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF ATLANTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GRASS LAKE... LONG LAKE... ROYSTON... HILLMAN... FLETCHER POND... LONG RAPIDS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. LAT...LON 4521 8368 4490 8385 4517 8419 4520 8417 TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 286DEG 19KT 4518 8408 $$ JPB
3 follow-up statements
000 WWUS34 KAPX 202310 SVSAPX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 710 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 MIC007-119-202345- /O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-080720T2345Z/ MONTMORENCY MI-ALPENA MI- 710 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR ALPENA AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES... AT 707 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONG LAKE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROYSTON... HILLMAN... FLETCHER POND... LONG RAPIDS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. LAT...LON 4490 8385 4509 8409 4520 8403 4521 8368 TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 300DEG 15KT 4514 8400 $$ JPB
000 WWUS34 KAPX 202326 SVSAPX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 MIC007-119-202345- /O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-080720T2345Z/ MONTMORENCY MI-ALPENA MI- 726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR ALPENA AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES... AT 723 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLMAN...OR 10 MILES WEST OF LACHINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HILLMAN... LONG RAPIDS... FLETCHER POND... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. LAT...LON 4490 8385 4502 8400 4516 8397 4517 8370 TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 309DEG 16KT 4509 8392 $$ JPB
000 WWUS34 KAPX 202345 SVSAPX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 745 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 MIC007-119-202355- /O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-080720T2345Z/ MONTMORENCY MI-ALPENA MI- 745 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ALPENA AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED... AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED AND EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WARNINGS. LAT...LON 4490 8385 4502 8400 4516 8397 4517 8370 TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 309DEG 16KT 4509 8392 $$ JPB
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 3:42 PM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 3:42 PM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 342 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 .DISCUSSION...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NW MINNESOTA. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MINNESOTA LOW IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED 500 MB LOW ALONG THE SRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA BORDER AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IN THIS VCNTY. CLOSER TO HOME...SPOTTY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY FINALLY GEARS UP AFTER A CLOUDY/SLOW START. SO FAR...CONVECTION HAS BE RATHER DISORGANIZED AND WEAK...DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VIA LAKE BREEZES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DWPTS IN THE MID 60S). WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AT THIS HOUR...BUT A LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWS AN APPROACHING 55 KT 500 MB JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 500 MB ROUGH AND DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM 500 MB LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. TONIGHT...SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING EARLY EVENING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGH DWPT AIR AT LOW LEVELS. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY TOWARD MID EVENING AS UPPER SUPPORT VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE/500 MB DPVA ARRIVES. WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN (500 MB WINDS TO 45 KTS...850 MB WINDS TO 20 KTS) AND BECOME NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST AROUND MID EVENING AS WELL. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THIS TIME...BUT ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR (MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR CWA) WILL ENHANCED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO NEAR -6 C IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. LATEST NAM ALSO SUGGEST SOME 850 MB THETA E RIDGING BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25 THRU THE NIGHT. NO DOUBT SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN THE RULE THRU TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE FEATURES/PROCESSES AT PLAY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SVR STORM GIVEN INCREASED UPPER SUPPORT AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS...BUT FORWARD MOTION OF STORMS SHOULD INCREASE...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP MOST LOCATIONS OUT OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND SHIFTS JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NRN MICHIGAN...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 AND SFC DWPTS DEPRESSIONS 0-2 DEGREES. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SOMEWHAT MORE QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (FOR THE MID SUMMER SEASON) EARLY WEEK EASTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS NORTHEAST...GENERALLY PLACING OUR AREA IN DEEP SUBSIDENCE REGIME AND PUSHING APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH. HOWEVER...INITIAL TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY MAY FEATURE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY OWNING TO COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT SYSTEM. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THIS EARLY PERIOD... SPECIFICALLY ON REMAINING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS LIE AHEAD...STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COOLING MID LEVELS INTERACT WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAKE AND SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN CONVERGENT AREAS. WHILE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT STAGE RIGHT EARLY MONDAY...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA SLATED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARL EVENING...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD ARGUE FOR A DRY MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING POSSIBLY STIRS THINGS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...REFUSED TO GET TOO FANCY MONDAY AND STUCK WITH INHERITED DAY LONG CHANCE SHOWER MENTION...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT TIMING ISSUES WITH VARIOUS WAVES THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED ALL THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH MODEL ADJUSTED POINT SOUNDINGS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. DOWNWARD SIDE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY. THINKING IS BY TUESDAY THAT ADDITIONAL RAIN THREAT WILL BE ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO HAVE TRIED SOME TEMPORAL AND AREAL SPECIFICITY... REGULATING ALL MENTION TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AWAY FROM STABLE MARINE INFLUENCES ALONG THE BIG LAKES COASTLINES (AT LEAST FOR SPECIFIC AREAS). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SHOULD SET UP A DRY MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY. GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE RETURN FLOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN LOW POP CATEGORY. NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...RETURNING THE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF LATE JULY NORMS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. (AS A SIDE NOTE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE AVERAGE MAX HIGH TEMPERATURES OBSERVED FOR THE SUMMER SEASON OCCURS FROM TODAY THROUGH JULY 23RD (WEDNESDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A SLOW DESCENT THEREAFTER :)). MSB && .AVIATION...ISSUED 125 PM ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...WITH MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN SHRA/TSRA. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS WELL. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. LH...NONE. LS...NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 4:11 PM EDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 411 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 211000- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 411 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT YOUR CONVENIENCE.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 20, 5:06 PM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM HAIL GLADWIN 43.98N 84.49W
07/20/2008 M1.00 INCH GLADWIN MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
ASULLIVALocal storm report, Jul 20, 5:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
510 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM HAIL 11 NE GLADWIN 44.10N 84.33W
07/20/2008 M1.00 INCH GLADWIN MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
ASULLIVALocal storm report, Jul 20, 5:51 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
551 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0533 PM HAIL 2 N MIO 44.69N 84.13W
07/20/2008 M0.25 INCH OSCODA MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
MBOGUTHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 3:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Gladwin, Ogemaw, Roscommon | 32 min |
| Jul 20, 5:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Gladwin | 37 min |
| Jul 20, 7:12 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | APX | 93 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2008Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.