Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2008
Lake Effect Snow Warning 9, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 16, 2008, 11:56 AM EST for 7 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 47 hr. 20 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2008, 11:56 AM EST (16:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 18, 2008, 11:00 AM EST
- In force
- 47 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Otsego County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 12:12 PM EST | SNOW 2.5 | Gaylord, MI | 5 HOUR TOTAL THRU 12 PM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN. |
| Nov 16, 1:37 PM EST | SNOW 4 | Gaylord, MI | 7 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN. |
| Nov 16, 8:28 PM EST | SNOW 1 | Elmira, MI | 12HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4 IN. |
| Nov 16, 8:28 PM EST | SNOW 4 | 5 Se Mancelona, MI | 16HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4 IN. |
| Nov 16, 8:28 PM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Elmira, MI | 24HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4 IN. |
| Nov 17, 3:00 AM EST | SNOW 8 | 5 W Gaylord, MI | 24 HR TOTAL THRU 3 AM. SNOW DEPTH 6 IN. |
| Nov 17, 7:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 6.8 | 2 Wnw Gaylord, MI | 24 HOUR TOTAL. SNOW DEPTH 6 INCHES. |
| Nov 17, 7:03 AM EST | SNOW 6.5 | Alba, MI | 12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. 24 HR TOTAL 8 IN. |
| Nov 17, 7:19 AM EST | SNOW 3.2 | 3 E Honor, MI | 24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOW DEPTH 3 IN. WATER EQUIVALENT 0.30 IN. |
| Nov 17, 7:42 AM EST | SNOW 8 | 5 Se Mancelona, MI | 24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOW DEPTH 11 IN. |
| Nov 17, 7:53 AM EST | SNOW 6 | 3 Ese Elmira, MI | 24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 8 IN. |
| Nov 17, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 2 | 2 W South Boardman, MI | 24HR TOTAL ENDING 8AM. SNOW DEPTH 2 INCHES. |
| Nov 17, 8:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | 5 Ne Kalkaska, MI | 12HR TOTAL ENDING 8AM. |
| Nov 17, 9:45 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | Central Lake, MI | 12HR TOTAL ENDING 945AM. |
| Nov 17, 6:00 PM EST | SNOW 4.6 | 11 Se Kalkaska, MI | 24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM. SNOWDEPTH 7 INCHES. |
| Nov 17, 6:01 PM EST | SNOW 5 | 1 W Interlochen, MI | 12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM. SNOWDEPTH 7 INCHES. |
| Nov 17, 8:50 PM EST | SNOW 4.1 | 4 Se Honor, MI | 14 HOUR TOTAL THRU 845 PM. |
| Nov 17, 8:54 PM EST | SNOW 4.9 | 1 W Lake Ann, MI | 12 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM |
| Nov 17, 9:50 PM EST | SNOW 7 | 11 Se Kalkaska, MI | 14 HR TOTAL THRU 10 PM. SNOWDEPTH 11 INCHES. |
| Nov 18, 7:31 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | Williamsburg, MI | 7 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 782 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 68 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS43 KAPX 161656 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1156 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS... .COLD AND STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MIZ019-021-022-027-028-162200- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0009.081116T1656Z-081117T1600Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD... KALKASKA...GRAYLING 1156 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WILL APPROACHING A FOOT BY MONDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ008-162200- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.081116T1656Z-081117T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1156 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL APPROACH 8 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ016-017-162200- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.081116T1656Z-081117T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 1156 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES SOUTH OF M-68. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ JPB
9 follow-up statements
000 WWUS43 KAPX 162103 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 403 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS... .COLD AND STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MIZ019-021-022-027-028-171115- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD... KALKASKA...GRAYLING 403 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WARNED AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WILL APPROACHING A FOOT BY MONDAY MIDDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ008-171000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 403 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL APPROACH 8 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ016-017-171000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 403 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES SOUTH OF M-68. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ JPB
000 WWUS43 KAPX 170310 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1010 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS... .COLD AND STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MIZ019-021-022-027-028-171600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD... KALKASKA...GRAYLING 1010 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WARNED AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WILL APPROACHING A FOOT BY MONDAY MIDDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ008-171000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1010 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL APPROACH 8 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ016-017-171000- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 1010 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES SOUTH OF M-68. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MR
000 WWUS43 KAPX 170929 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 429 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS... .COLD AND STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MIZ016-017-171030- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 429 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. $$ MIZ019-021-022-027-028-171600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD... KALKASKA...GRAYLING 429 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES TODAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ020-025-026-172330- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0011.081117T1200Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 429 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ008-171600- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 429 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO AREAS AROUND WHITEFISH POINT TO RACO. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ SD
000 WWUS43 KAPX 171207 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 707 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS... .COLD AND STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MIZ019-022-171315- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHARLEVOIX-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...GAYLORD 707 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THREAT HAS ENDED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. $$ MIZ021-027-028-171600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ ANTRIM-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING 707 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES TODAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ020-025-026-180215- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 707 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ008-171600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 707 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO AREAS AROUND WHITEFISH POINT TO RACO. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ SD
000 WWUS43 KAPX 171519 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS... .COLD AND STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MIZ028-171630- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. $$ MIZ008-171630- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-081117T1600Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. $$ MIZ020-025-026-172200- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ /O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ021-027-172100- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T2100Z/ ANTRIM-KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ033-172100- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.081117T1519Z-081117T2100Z/ MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE CITY 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY WITH A TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ031-032-172200- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.081117T1519Z-081118T0600Z/ MANISTEE-WEXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC 1019 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY WITH A TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ AS
000 WWUS43 KAPX 172116 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 416 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE... .COLD AND STEADY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES...COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MIZ021-027-172230- /O.EXP.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081117T2100Z/ ANTRIM-KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA 416 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. $$ MIZ033-172230- /O.EXP.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081117T2100Z/ MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE CITY 416 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. $$ MIZ020-025-026-181015- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 416 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL OF BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ031-032-180600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081118T0600Z/ MANISTEE-WEXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC 416 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ AS
000 WWUS43 KAPX 180315 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1015 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE... .COLD AND STEADY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARMER LAKES... COMBINED WITH DEEP INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MIZ032-180415- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081118T0600Z/ WEXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CADILLAC 1015 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. $$ MIZ020-025-026-181600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 1015 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL OF BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ031-181100- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081118T1100Z/ MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANISTEE 1015 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST HALF OF THE COUNTY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ JZ
000 WWUS43 KAPX 180854 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 354 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 MIZ020-025-026-181600- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 354 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL OF BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...AS WELL AS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OF BENZIE COUNTY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ031-181600- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANISTEE 354 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...HEAVIEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ LAWRENCE
000 WWUS43 KAPX 181606 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1106 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 MIZ020-025-026-181715- /O.EXP.KAPX.LE.W.0009.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 1106 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. $$ MIZ031-181715- /O.EXP.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081118T1600Z/ MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANISTEE 1106 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. $$ ADAM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 16, 11:39 AM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 11:39 AM EST, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1139 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/
COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GET ENHANCED TODAY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKING
ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
VIGOROUS HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN SOME
RESPECTFUL SNOW TOTALS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY WHILE HIGHER
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER...WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY
MORE SNOW ALREADY TAKING AIM ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SMD
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1139 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING ACROSS MI...WITH
A WEAK 1012MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRUNG OUT
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING ACROSS ND/MN/IL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND VAD WIND PROFILER DATA WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER VORTICITY
CENTER IS CROSSING CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF SYNOPTIC SNOW UPSTREAM...PROBABLY DUE TO A NARROW WEDGE (4K
FEET) OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ABOVE THE TOP OF THE CBL...THE ADDED
MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLEARLY HELPING THE LES INTO NORTHWEST LOWER WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE/ HEAVY SNOW AT GLR THIS MORNING. MONTREAL
RIVER RADAR ALSO SHOWS A NICE BAND OVER WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...
WHICH IS EMERGING OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND BRINGING SOME
GOOD RADAR RETURNS TO THE PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY SHORELINE. 12Z APX
SOUNDING PUT INVERSION AT 750MB/-15C...850MB TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO
-9C.
LAKE SNOW ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. FOR EASTERN UPPER...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT UP AN LES
ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY. BAND WEST OF WHITEFISH BAY HAS BEEN
PRETTY PERSISTENT...AND SOME RETURNS FROM THAT BAND SHOWING UP ON
OUR RADAR COMING OFF WHITEFISH BAY...WHICH IS NEVER GOOD. SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF ONTARIO...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS ALSO AT THE SOO/WHITEFISH POINT/CIU. THIS IS PROBABLY A
MANIFESTATION OF STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THIS BAND (WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AT MUNISING/ERY). ONE CONCERN IS THAT THIS FLOW
COULD PUSH BAND FAR ENOUGH WEST AND AWAY FROM WESTERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY...BUT AT THIS POINT THINK CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP THIS BAND
FOCUSED ON WHITEFISH BAY. WILL INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS HERE INTO THE
3-6 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL RUN THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS FOR NORTHERN LOWER...THINK ITS PRUDENT TO JUST GO AHEAD AND
UPGRADE THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO A WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THUS FAR LES BANDS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE REMAINED INTACT...
THOUGH THEY COULD BREAK DOWN INTO MORE CELLULAR ELEMENTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS BALANCE BETWEEN SPEED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
TENUOUS. BUT THEY ARE CLEARLY BENEFITING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
BANDING EMERGING BACK ONTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. REGARDLESS...
INVERSION HEIGHTS FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 700MB TONIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE) AND FORECAST LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES JUMP TO AROUND 800J/KG. GIVEN SNOWFALL RATES
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING...AND A FAIRLY STEADY NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORY (ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT BANDING REMAINS INTACT)...THINK
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW BELTS WILL DO PRETTY WELL OVERNIGHT.
SO AFTER COORDINATING WITH MY LONG TERM COHORT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
UPGRADE THE FIVE ADVISORY COUNTIES TO AN LES WARNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH A FOOT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY DEPENDING ON BAND PERSISTENCE (ALWAYS THE BIG UNKNOWN).
GIVEN BANDING INTO SOUTHERN EMMET/SOUTHWEST CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES
WILL PUT THEM INTO AN ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...NOT TOTALLY SURE
ON HOW PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL BE INTO THESE AREAS TONIGHT (THUS
PRECLUDING A WORSE HEADLINE). REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT
ALONE...EXCEPT FOR CHANGING PRECIP TYPE TO SNOW ALL AREAS (FKS/MBL
WERE THE LAST HOLDOUTS)...AND INCREASING SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE
PRESQUE ISLE SHORELINE AS ITS CONNECTING BAND NEAR WHITEFISH BAY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
JPB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND
MONDAY...SNOWS SHOULD STILL BE GOING STRONG INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY HOURS AS LES PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSIVE. THE NEXT
S/W AND -DIVQ ARRIVES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
EVEN HELP...GIVE THE SNOW A BOOST. SNOW ACCUMS THIS DAY WILL NOT
BE AS HIGH THOUGH...THE SHORTWAVE...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...IS
SUGGESTED TO HELP BRING LAKE TROUGHINESS DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND DRY AIR BELOW 3-4KFT PUTS A SERIOUS DAMPER ON
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BEST ACCUMS WILL BE IN THE ADVISED
AREA...AND AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WHERE THE FLOW CAN STAY
LOCKED IN LONGER AND THE DRY AIR TAKES LONGER TO MAKE IT IN.
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO UP TO 3 INCHES HERE FOR THE DAY.
LATER PERIODS...TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA AND FLOW GOES MORE
NORTHERLY. COULD BE DECENT LES POTENTIAL FOR TVC WITH A COUPLE-FEW
INCHES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT HOWEVER...AS DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. WE ARE TYPICALLY TOO
FAST IN ENDING LES...BUT PATTERN ITSELF IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE. LOOKS
LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY SETTING ITS SIGHTS ON
US FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 355 AM/
COLD AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
STEADY NW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL COMMONLY BE FOUND IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP CHOPPY WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET GOING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST...FOR THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORE...AS WELL
AS THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT AREA. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR UNSTABLE/ROUGH CONDITIONS. SMD
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 610 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS
NW LAKE EFFECT DIRECTLY BETWEEN PLN/TVC...WHERE IT SHOULD BE.
ALBERTA CLIPPER COMING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN INCREASE LES ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES TODAY. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ARRIVES TOO...AND INTENSE AT TIMES LES WILL
DOMINATE NW LOWER. THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND LEAVES PREVAILING
MVRF FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR PLN/TVC THIS MORNING. CLIPPER TRACKS EAST OF
US BY TONIGHT...HIGHLY FAVORABLE LES PARAMETERS WILL KEEP SNOWS
INTENSE. FLOW JUST M EST MONDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
022-027-028.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ008-016-
017.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LS...NONE.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 4:59 AM EST, 6 hours 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 459 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 171300- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 459 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SMD
In the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:52 AM EST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
852 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0850 AM SNOW EAST JORDAN 45.16N 85.13W
11/16/2008 M3.0 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI TRAINED SPOTTER
12 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 3 IN.
&&
KASLocal storm report, Nov 16, 8:59 AM EST, 2 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
859 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0858 AM SNOW 3 ESE ELMIRA 45.05N 84.79W
11/16/2008 M3.5 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE
12 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 3 IN.
&&
KASLocal storm report, Nov 16, 11:46 AM EST, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1146 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1143 AM SNOW 2 NNE PARADISE 46.67N 85.02W
11/16/2008 M4.5 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER
18 HR TOTAL THRU 12 PM. SNOWDEPTH 5 IN.
&&
KASThe office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 4:30 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Advisory | APX | Antrim, Crawford, Kalkaska, Otsego | 7 hr |
| Nov 16, 11:56 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Advisory | APX | Cheboygan, Emmet | 22 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Michigan, 2008Every lake effect snow warning in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.