Alert archive / Michigan / Flood Watches in 2008

Flood Watch 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

December 25, 200814 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flood watch at Dec 25, 2008, 3:56 PM EST for 14 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Dec 27, 2008, 5:00 AM EST. It was in force for 35 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2008, 3:56 PM EST (20:56 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 27, 2008, 5:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 28, 2008, 3:53 PM EST
In force
35 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
Flood severity
None

Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2008-12-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2008-12-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
638 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS63 KAPX 252056
FFAAPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

MIZ041-042-260900-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLADWIN...STANDISH
356 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ARENAC AND GLADWIN.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH SNOWMELT
  FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING SATURDAY
  INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING
  IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
  SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

AJS
11 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 260321
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

MIZ041-042-261130-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1021 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ARENAC AND GLADWIN.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH 
  SNOWMELT FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING 
  SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

KAS
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 260912
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

MIZ041-042-261715-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLADWIN...STANDISH
412 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ARENAC AND GLADWIN.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH 
  SNOWMELT FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING 
  SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$


SMD
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 261716
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1216 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

MIZ041-042-262300-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1216 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ARENAC AND GLADWIN.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH 
  SNOWMELT FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING 
  SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

ADAM
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 262131
FFAAPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

MIZ031>036-270545-
/O.EXA.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY
431 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IOSCO...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...
  OGEMAW...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH 
  SNOWMELT FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING 
  SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

MIZ041-042-270545-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLADWIN...STANDISH
431 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ARENAC AND GLADWIN.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH 
  SNOWMELT FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING 
  SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

ADAM
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 271000
FFAAPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
500 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

MIZ023-024-027>030-271800-
/O.EXB.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE
500 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ALCONA...ALPENA...CRAWFORD...
  KALKASKA...MONTMORENCY AND OSCODA.

* FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH SNOWMELT
  FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING SATURDAY
  INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT RESULT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
  REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP SNOWPACK MAY BE
  ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

MIZ031>036-041-042-271800-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FA.A.0002.081227T1300Z-081228T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
500 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ARENAC...GLADWIN...IOSCO...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...
  OGEMAW...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH SNOWMELT
  FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING SATURDAY
  INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT RESULT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
  REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP SNOWPACK MAY BE
  ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$


SMD
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 271821
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

MIZ023-024-027>036-041-042-280500-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
121 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ALCONA...ALPENA...ARENAC...CRAWFORD...GLADWIN...
  IOSCO...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...MONTMORENCY...
  OGEMAW...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH SNOWMELT
  FROM EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING TONIGHT. THE
  EXACT RESULT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
  THE RELATIVELY DEEP SNOWPACK MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE
  RAIN.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

ADAM
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 272054
FFAAPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

MIZ023-024-027>036-041-042-280500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
354 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ALCONA...ALPENA...ARENAC...CRAWFORD...GLADWIN...
  IOSCO...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...MONTMORENCY...
  OGEMAW...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH RAPID
  SNOWMELT FROM WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING TONIGHT
  INTO SUNDAY. THE EXACT RESULT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINS IN
  QUESTION...AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP SNOWPACK MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB
  MUCH OF THE RAIN.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

ADAM
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 280253
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

MIZ023-024-027>036-041-042-281100-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
953 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ALCONA...ALPENA...ARENAC...CRAWFORD...GLADWIN...
  IOSCO...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...MONTMORENCY...
  OGEMAW...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH RAPID 
  SNOWMELT FROM WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING TONIGHT 
  INTO SUNDAY. THE EXACT RESULT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINS 
  IN QUESTION...AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP SNOWPACK MAY BE ABLE TO 
  ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN. 

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 280822
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

MIZ023-024-027>036-041-042-281630-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
322 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ALCONA...ALPENA...ARENAC...CRAWFORD...GLADWIN...
  IOSCO...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...MONTMORENCY...
  OGEMAW...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* RECENT MODERATE...TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...IN COMBINATION
  WITH RAPID SNOWMELT FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY STILL LEAD TO
  FLOODING THROUGH TODAY. THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN ABLE TO ABSORB
  MUCH OF THE RAIN THUS FAR. MELTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  EARLY MORNING...BEFORE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH
  NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE
  EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT. REGARDLESS...FLOODING REMAINS
  A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$


SMD
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 281623
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1123 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

MIZ023-024-027>036-041-042-282200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1123 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ALCONA...ALPENA...ARENAC...CRAWFORD...GLADWIN...
  IOSCO...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...MISSAUKEE...MONTMORENCY...
  OGEMAW...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON AND WEXFORD.

* UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON

* RECENT MODERATE...TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...IN COMBINATION
  WITH RAPID SNOWMELT MAY STILL LEAD TO FLOODING THROUGH TODAY.
  THE SNOWPACK AND AN UNFROZEN GROUND HAS BEEN ABLE TO ABSORB
  MUCH OF THE RAIN AND MELTING THUS FAR AND COLDER AIR NOW ACROSS
  THE REGION WILL SLOW THE IMPACT. REGARDLESS...FLOODING REMAINS A
  POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON 
  EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE 
  LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
  ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

ADAM
000 
WGUS63 KAPX 282053
FFAAPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

MIZ023-024-027>036-041-042-282200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-081228T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
353 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Dec 25, 3:29 PM EST, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 3:29 PM EST, 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 329 PM/

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN THE
MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 329 PM/...TONIGHT

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FT WAYNE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS STILL KICKING UP A
FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER. MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER
AND PARTS OF NE LOWER MI HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE...TIS OTHERWISE ON
THE CLOUDY SIDE. AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS ADVANCING ACROSS
IOWA. SOME SNOW HAS JUST STARTED TO BREAK OUT IN WESTERN IOWA. AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...RAPID
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PRECIP (MAINLY
SNOW) TO BREAK OUT TO OUR WEST TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

LES CONTINUES TO DWINDLE. WILL CARRY A FEW FLURRIES IN SW FLOW AREAS
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH TONIGHT...
PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO -1C
SOUTH/-4C NORTH BY DAYBREAK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. STRONGER 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVES
QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. NAM IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP PRECIP
ONSET...WHICH IS REASONABLE AS MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW IN
ERODING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.

PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE MANISTEE AREA
TOWARD 3AM OR SO. THE LEADING EDGE SHOULD NEAR NAUBINWAY...
PETOSKEY...AND STANDISH BY 12Z/7AM. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...
THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE...WITH 900MB TEMPS UP TO -1C DOWN TOWARD
MBL.  WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY RESPECTABLE PRECIP RATES IN THE SW
ZONES...AS STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE 700MB FGEN MAX IS QUITE LOW
(EPV APPROX ZERO...IN ZONE OF MAX UPWARD OMEGA). HOWEVER...SNOW/
LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE NEAR RELATIVE WARM LAYER
BELOW 600MB. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CIRCA 2 INCH ACCUMS AROUND
MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...DWINDLING TO LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
M-66. AROUND AN INCH WILL ALSO SUFFICE FOR FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY.

TEMPS WILL DIP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE/S
A BIT OF CLEARING. RISING TEMPS LATE (MAINLY INTO THE LOW/MID 20S)
AS CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 329 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND

FRIDAY...INITIAL SURGE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECIP QUICKLY LIFTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED JUST AS QUICKLY
BY A WEAKENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT-TYPE STRUCTURE. DPVA FORCING IS
LARGELY OUT THE DOOR BY 18Z...AND CONSEQUENTIALLY THE MID LEVELS
SHOW A DRYING TREND FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.

THE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS TO REDUCE PRECIP WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
THIS APPEARS MOST DIRECTLY RELATED TO A WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 60KT JUST TO OUR WEST AT
12Z...BUT ARE NOT PROGGED TO RISE ABOVE 40/45KT HERE. HOWEVER...I AM
A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT THE DEGREE OF PRECIP REDUCTION SEEN IN THE
MODELS. WE STILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...AND STILL HAVE NEAR-ZERO EPV AIR ENTRAINING ON THE BACK OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. SO WILL SPREAD A BIT MORE PRECIP INTO NE LOWER
THAN PROGGED.

SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND
3 INCHES IN THE WEST TO AROUND 2 IN THE EAST. THAT LEAVES THE
WESTERN ZONES (TVC/CAD WEST...AND WESTERN MACKINAC) FLIRTING WITH
THE 3 INCH ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN MANY PLACES ARE PUSHING 100
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF...WILL NOT BE IN ANY
HURRY TO HOIST YET ANOTHER HEADLINE FOR /AROUND 3 INCHES/ OF SNOW.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS SYNOPTIC PRECIP EXITS...WITH 850MB
TEMPS SURGING TO 2C IN THE NORTH BY 00Z...AND AS WARM AS 9C () IN
THE SOUTH. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PEELS OUT...THE LOW LEVELS (UP THRU
800MB) REMAIN QUITE MOIST. ABSOLUTE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES WITH
HEIGHT...AND QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR (VEERING) IN THE MOIST LAYER...
WILL TEND TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. MIDDAY TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES...SO FZDZ WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN (AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFERENCE IN THE HWO). BY
LATE AFTERNOON...LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD GO
ABOVE 32F...WHILE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER WILL STRUGGLE.
CERTAINLY CONCEIVABLE FZDZ WILL REQUIRE A HEADLINE FOR PART OF
FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS 30 TO 40...WARMEST IN THE FAR SW.

JZ

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY)...WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL TO START
THE PERIOD THEN COOLING BACK OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD SHOT TO ROUND OUT 2008. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ENERGY EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP JUST COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST DIGS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THEN HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THEREFORE...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FINALLY GETS MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ON SATURDAY
(PRECIPITABLE WATER A ROBUST 1.25 INCHES) BUT THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL BE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH GRR AND DTX...THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR GLADWIN AND ARENAC
COUNTIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY LIES TO OUR SOUTH (100-200 J/KG OF CAPE). COLDER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE GRIDS GENERIC HOWEVER
WITH JUST RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS NAIL DOWN THE
DETAILS AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH THE FLOW BACKING
FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS TO DEAL
WITH...ONE MONDAY AND ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TO
START THE WEEK THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TO END THE YEAR.

SULLIVAN

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 329 PM/

AS ADVERTISED...WILL GET THE 1ST HEADLINES UP FOR OUR NEXT MARINE
WIND EVENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR FT WAYNE INDIANA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
RESPOND 1ST ON LAKE MI AND WHITEFISH BAY...AND HAVE POSTED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THOSE WATERS. LAKE HURON COULD GET
THERE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1240 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

WESTERLY WINDS OVR NRN MI THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST
INTO THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. LINGERING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS OVER KPLN/KTVC...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EVENING
AS 850MB AIR BEGINS TO WARM OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF NXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUITE
WX WISE...BEFORE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NRN LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTS TO
WORK INTO THE NRN LAKES WHILE SFC TEMPS REMAIN AROUND FREEZING UNTIL
AFT 18Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CONDS OVER KAPN/KTVC/KPLN
TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TAF PD...WITH EXCEPTION OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LINGERING LAKE SNOW OVR KTVC/KPLN THIS AFTN.

SWR

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ041-042.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ341-344>346.
LH...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 25, 4:57 AM EST, 10 hours 59 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
457 AM EST THU DEC 25 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
261300-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
457 AM EST THU DEC 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE PASS ON SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

MSB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 25, 10:17 AM EST, 5 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 AM EST THU DEC 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     SNOW             SAULT STE. MARIE        46.48N 84.37W
12/25/2008  M3.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 20 IN.

1011 AM     SNOW             ATLANTA                 45.00N 84.15W
12/25/2008  M8.0 INCH        MONTMORENCY        MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 20 IN.

&&

SWR
Local storm report, Dec 25, 10:19 AM EST, 5 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1019 AM EST THU DEC 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     SNOW             WELLSTON                44.22N 85.95W
12/25/2008  M3.5 INCH        MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12HR TOTAL THRU 12 AM. SNOWDEPTH 28 IN.

0737 AM     SNOW             EAST JORDAN             45.16N 85.13W
12/25/2008  M4.5 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 19 IN.

0835 AM     SNOW             4 E HONOR               44.67N 85.94W
12/25/2008  M4.7 INCH        BENZIE             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 23 IN.

0835 AM     SNOW             11 N LAKE CITY          44.49N 85.21W
12/25/2008  M3.5 INCH        MISSAUKEE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOW DEPTH 25 IN.

0835 AM     SNOW             MORAN                   46.00N 85.00W
12/25/2008  M3.0 INCH        MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 17 IN.

0835 AM     SNOW             HESSEL                  46.01N 84.42W
12/25/2008  M4.0 INCH        MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 15 IN.

1011 AM     SNOW             SAULT STE. MARIE        46.48N 84.37W
12/25/2008  M3.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 20 IN.

1011 AM     SNOW             ATLANTA                 45.00N 84.15W
12/25/2008  M8.0 INCH        MONTMORENCY        MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 20 IN.

&&

SWR
Local storm report, Dec 25, 11:27 AM EST, 4 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EST THU DEC 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     SNOW             ALBA                    45.00N 84.90W
12/25/2008  M6.0 INCH        ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM. SNOW DEPTH 23 IN.

&&

SWR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 3:38 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX43 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in Michigan, 2008Every flood watch in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.