Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG TSRA
BLOOSMING ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WELL DEFINED
DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. SEE
LITTLE REASON FOR TSRA TO DIMINISH IN THE SHORT TERM WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF STORMS. HOWEVER HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY OF THE THREE
TERMINALS SO INCLUDED VCTS WORDING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH PRETTY
LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CIGS AND VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

CURRENT AVIATION WEATHER WARNING STILL ON TRACK EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO CONVECTION IN AREA. OTHERWISE SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN MON MORNING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON WITH SVR WX GETTING OFF TO AN EARLY START. DRYLINE HAS
NOT MOVED VERY FAR TODAY...AND HAVE DRAGGED HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER
WWD INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALSO WORDED AS AREAL QUALIFIERS
FOR THIS EVENING ALONG WITH MENTION OF SVR.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...APPEARS MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EWD COMPARED TO TODAY...TO PERHAPS THE
CNTRL ZONES. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS W AND CNTRL...AND CHC POPS
ERN ZONES FOR MON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU FCST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SETTLE
S OF THE PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR TUE AND TUE
NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO POST FRONTAL TYPE PRECIP. MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.

WED THRU NEXT SUNDAY DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THEN FLATTENS SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPS TO WARM UP TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN BY LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX
PNHDLS REST OF AFTN AND THIS EVENING AS THE DRYLINE HAS REMAINED
FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD GOING. ALSO...TSTM COMPLEX INCLUDING
SVR WX AND TORNADOES HAS OCCURRED IN DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES AS
WELL THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WRN PNHDLS AS
DRYLINE IS FCST TO MOVE INTO CNTRL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED TODAY...
WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/99

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
923 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
923 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 1 AM CDT
MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE REGION...A DRYLINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY OF THESE DAYS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON MEMORIAL DAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING...AND ALSO AT TIMES MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

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