Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
304 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO RIGHT NOW. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND HEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALREADY. MINOR BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL ADD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN DROPPED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR TONIGHT AS STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY COMPARED TO
RECENT WEEKS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE
INITIAL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO COLORADO BY TOMORROW EVENING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE FINALLY GETTING ABSORBED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE UPPER LOW AROUND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT.

STAYED WITH THE 12Z MAV TEMPERATURES AND POPS...AND THE 00Z MEX
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

KIMBLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER SITUATIONS.

KIMBLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  82  62  79  62 /  60  30  60  40  50
BEAVER OK                  63  84  64  79  63 /  50  30  50  50  50
BOISE CITY OK              59  78  58  74  58 /  40  40  60  60  60
BORGER TX                  65  84  64  79  63 /  60  30  60  50  50
BOYS RANCH TX              64  83  63  80  62 /  50  30  60  50  50
CANYON TX                  62  81  62  81  62 /  60  30  60  40  50
CLARENDON TX               65  84  65  80  62 /  60  40  50  40  50
DALHART TX                 60  78  60  74  60 /  50  40  60  50  60
GUYMON OK                  63  82  62  76  61 /  50  40  60  50  50
HEREFORD TX                60  82  62  79  58 /  50  30  60  50  50
LIPSCOMB TX                64  84  65  79  64 /  60  30  50  40  50
PAMPA TX                   64  83  63  78  62 /  60  30  50  40  50
SHAMROCK TX                65  85  65  82  64 /  60  40  50  40  40
WELLINGTON TX              66  86  67  83  64 /  60  40  50  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/13

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
325 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-151100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
325 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES
UNTIL 10 PM.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
FLASH FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

OBSERVERS ARE REQUESTED TO SUBMIT THEIR RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN AMARILLO.

COCKRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             BOOKER                  36.46N 100.54W
08/14/2008  M1.25 INCH       LIPSCOMB           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL STONES COVERING
            GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800820

JJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
532 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             KNOWLES                 36.87N 100.19W
08/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800821

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 E ELMWOOD             36.62N 100.39W
08/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE AND
            EVEN SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL. REPORTED THAT THE GROUND WAS
            COMPLETELY COVERED AND THAT TREES WERE STRIPPED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800822

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             8 E STRATFORD           36.34N 101.93W
08/14/2008  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800823

CK

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