Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Amarillo, TX

000 
WWUS54 KAMA 231511
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1012 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

TXC195-233-341-421-231522-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080423T1515Z/
SHERMAN TX-HANSFORD TX-HUTCHINSON TX-MOORE TX-
1012 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MOORE...
NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON...SOUTHERN HANSFORD AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1015 AM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3642 10157 3621 10109 3576 10144 3588 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 211DEG 19KT 3615 10137

$$

KJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. ANTICIPATE THE
FOG LIFTING BY NOON TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT KAMA DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG REDUCING VIS TO ONE QUARTER MILE. THE FOG EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH
KDHT AND KGUY...BUT IMPROVED VISIBILITIES AND CIGS ARE LINGERING IN
THE MVFR RANGE. STILL THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AND
VIS THROUGH 15Z SO WILL USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ANY REDUCED CONDITIONS
AT KDHT AND KGUY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 17Z OR 18Z. NOT
CONFIDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL INSERT TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW. PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP IN TAFS PAST
00Z.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS TO JUST NORTH OF
MAF NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTHWEST OF SPS AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF SPS IN
AREA OF WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE BOOTHEAL OF NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO HELP DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE DAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW AND
THE EXPECTED SOURCE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...THIS AREA MAY BE THE WARMEST WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT
BECOMING SEVERE OVER THE PANHANDLES AS THEY WILL BE ELEVATED AND
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY ALOFT. DO NOT THINK
THAT STORMS WILL GET MUCH HELP FROM SURFACE OVER THE PANHANDLES AS
WE WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH TODAY.
SO THINK THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE STORMS REFIRE
THEN...MAINLY ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND THEN SPREADING EAST.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO COME SWEEPING SOUTH OVER
THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY BEHIND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN A VIGOROUS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME
PRECIP...SO HAVE KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHWEST U.S. WITH THE
PANHANDLES UNDER A RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

14/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231800-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
600 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

ALSO...BREEZY WINDS WILL REQUIRE BOATERS TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA
LAKES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

DRY AIR AND STRONG WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ON
THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY.

BROST