Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
217 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AND REMNANTS OF DOLLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KS SOUTH INTO
THE PANHANDLES. AIR MASS STILL MOIST WITH PWAT/S AROUND 1.50 INCHES
OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INTO EXTREME WESTERN OK...FEEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
ALLOWS AIR MASS TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMP NEAR 90 TO THE LOW 90S.
ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TONIGHT BUT MAINTAINED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED POP GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH MODELS FORECTING UPPER TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF
DOLLY TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD
ALLOW FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
TX PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM WEST TO EAST AND ALLOW FOR WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY
TO FOCUS GREATEST THREAT IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECASTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO COME LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGES BEHIND THIS
SURFACE TROUGH AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 70
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW EARLY THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTION EXPECTED AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20
PERCENT. BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR 100 AND MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT INTO THE
TEENS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...HOWEVER DO NOT
EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO MET AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20
MPH. FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  95  70  97  68 /  30  20  20  10   5
BEAVER OK                  67  96  68  97  65 /  70  30  30  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              66  92  67  97  65 /  50  20  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  96  74 100  73 /  40  20  20  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              71  98  70 100  68 /  40  20  20  10   5
CANYON TX                  67  95  68  98  65 /  30  20  20  10   5
CLARENDON TX               69  96  71  98  70 /  30  20  30  10   5
DALHART TX                 68  93  65  98  63 /  40  20  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  69  93  68 100  66 /  60  30  20  10   5
HEREFORD TX                66  95  66  96  66 /  30  20  20  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                67  93  68  96  66 /  60  30  30  10   5
PAMPA TX                   71  93  72  97  72 /  40  20  20  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                70  96  71  99  71 /  40  20  30  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  98  73 100  72 /  30  20  30  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

05/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITHIN SLOW MOVING
STORMS...RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLES. NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRAUSE

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