Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. A QUASI LINEAR MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EAST CENTRAL NM INTO
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS AT THE TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE COVERED
IN PREVAILING AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION EVEN
AFTER SUNSET. MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...I HAVE KEPT CIGS AT 4000 FEET OR HIGHER. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 06Z-07Z FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
AND INTERACTS WITH A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE
PRECIP ON MONDAY SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 00Z SO THIS WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS ALTHOUGH CB REMARKS WILL BE
INCLUDED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TCU FIELD DEVELOPS.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE INDICATING STORMS POPPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NM AND HEADING SE. APPEARS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE AND POSSIBLY PROLONG CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES PER 12Z GFS RUN...YET OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCT STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS WEST BUT
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND MODERATE HAIL THE BEING
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY DROP BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AZ MAY BUILD FURTHER NORTH RESULTING
IN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS MAY WARM TO THE MID OR UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND OR EARY NEXT
WEEK IF UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GFS AND OTHER MID RANGE
MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS TREND FOR SOME TIME...BUT SO FAR PATTERN
HAS REMAINED VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...MINIMAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT EVEN DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WINDS MAY BEOCME BREEZY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

24/03

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT.  PLEASE RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

KIMBLE

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