Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
202 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE INDICATING STORMS POPPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NM AND HEADING SE. APPEARS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE AND POSSIBLY PROLONG CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES PER 12Z GFS RUN...YET OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCT STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS WEST BUT
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND MODERATE HAIL THE BEING
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY DROP BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AZ MAY BUILD FURTHER NORTH RESULTING
IN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS MAY WARM TO THE MID OR UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND OR EARY NEXT
WEEK IF UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GFS AND OTHER MID RANGE
MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS TREND FOR SOME TIME...BUT SO FAR PATTERN
HAS REMAINED VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...MINIMAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT EVEN DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WINDS MAY BEOCME BREEZY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  91  63  91  66 /  30  20  20   5  20
BEAVER OK                  65  94  64  93  67 /  30  10  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              61  90  61  90  62 /  30  20  30  10  20
BORGER TX                  69  93  69  92  71 /  30  20  20  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              64  95  64  95  67 /  40  20  30  10  20
CANYON TX                  62  93  62  92  65 /  30  20  20   5  20
CLARENDON TX               66  93  67  91  69 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 60  92  61  92  62 /  40  20  30  10  20
GUYMON OK                  64  96  64  93  66 /  30  20  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                63  94  62  91  64 /  30  20  20  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  93  66  92  68 /  20  10  20  10  20
PAMPA TX                   68  91  67  88  69 /  20  10  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                67  96  67  93  69 /  20  10  20  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              68  98  69  94  71 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

07/09

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT.  PLEASE RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

KIMBLE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

TXZ002-222315-
SHERMAN TX-
550 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SHERMAN COUNTY...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF STRATFORD MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 12 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN SHERMAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF STRATFORD...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JC