Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...AGAIN MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER ON ONGOING
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW CURRENT CONVECTION
NEARING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF STORMS
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WITH MEAGER
CAPES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS. THINKING TSRA IS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS SO COVERED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS. ALSO INCLUDED
A PROB GROUP AT KAMA WHERE CONVECTION MAY IMPACT TERMINAL OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN CONVECTION SAT MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOWEVER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SAT EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCES JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MAY SEE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION IN AREA BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 10 KTS. WIND FLOW MAY BE VARIABLE WITH
CONVECTION BUT BECOME PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEASTLY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO REST OVER THE
WESTERN US PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE PANHANDLES. SFC HIGH
SITTING OVER THE PANHANDLES IS KEEPING WIND SPEEDS LESS LIGHT.
WITHOUT THE RETURN FLOW IN PLACE TODAY...LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES LOWER AT THE SURFACE FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA...THE MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT HAS ALSO
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE
PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICALLY...THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MODELS
SHOW A THETA E RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
IN FACT...WAS TEMPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLES WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS HAVE ONLY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS. SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL KEEP FUTURE SHIFTS BRIEFED OF THE POTENTIAL.

MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW TOMORROW...WHILE THE
SFC FLOW REGIME REMAINS LIGHT WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AT THE SURFACE. GFS AND NAM SHOW A RECOVERY DAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE ROCKIES. SO AM NOT SOLD AT THE DRY AIR AND WILL RETAIN POPS
FOR NOW. APPEARS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRANSITIONING BACK TO AN
INCREASING RIDGE ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AT BAY...OTHER THAN A FEW
MOUNTAIN INDUCED STORMS THAT COULD DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
SO FOCUSED POPS IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES...WHICH
WILL HELP BRING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WHILE LL
SE WINDS INCREASE AND HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. SO
THINKING AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...APPEARS THIS SAME REGIME WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL TRY TO BRING A DRYING TREND
LATE NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. FOUND
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. DOES APPEAR
THAT WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARER
SKIES THIS WEEKEND...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER THAN
A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO THE DAY 1 POPS.

JJB

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

05/15

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