Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THINKING KDHT AND
KGUY MAY RECEIVE THUNDER DURING THE 00Z TO 05Z TIME FRAME...BUT
PRECIP MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING DURING THE 03 TO 07Z TIME FRAME AT KAMA.
HANDLED PRECIP WITH TEMPO GROUPS...AND INSERTED A VCTS REMARK FOR
KGUY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING...THEN
VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z
AS THE MOISTURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT DURING MID MORNING...WITH CU REDEVELOPING NEAR THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS JUST YET.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. AS STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HIGHLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR...THINKING THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPER CELLS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO SHOULD TRAVEL WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IMPACT THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. SO...ASIDE FROM SEVERE WEATHER...AM ALSO SOME WHAT
CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. HELD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FEEL GRIDS MAY BE A BIT OVER POPULATED...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
SEEMS TO BE FEW OBVIOUS DRY PERIODS WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DID FEEL
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY SEE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY...BUT THAT MAY ALSO CHANGE. SEE NO REASON WHY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WITH THE RIDGE SITTING IN A SIMILAR POSITION...EXPECT ANY ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT WAVES THAT TRIGGER STORMS IN
EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD ALSO BECOME DIRECTED
BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EACH NEW MODEL RUN
SEEMS TO SHY AWAY FROM MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE RIDGE UNTIL THE
DAY 6 OR 7 TIME FRAME...AT WHICH TIME THE GFS AND EURO ATTEMPT TO
PUSH THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AND INCREASE THE HEIGHTS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR LOWER POP CHANCES FOR THE PANHANDLES...SO WILL AGAIN KEEP
THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME DRY. FURTHERMORE...EXPECT ANY DAY THAT
PRODUCES THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.

NEED TO BEGIN SEVERE WEATHER OPS SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE ABBREVIATED
AFD...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART.

JJB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED...OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
216 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-201100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
216 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 578 UNTIL 9 PM ACROSS CIMARRON AND TEXAS COUNTIES IN THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND ALL BUT THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

NUNEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
719 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ016-017-200045-
DEAF SMITH TX-RANDALL TX-
719 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN EAST CENTRAL DEAF SMITH AND WESTERN RANDALL
COUNTIES...

AT 719 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF UMBARGER MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
32 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL DEAF SMITH AND WESTERN RANDALL COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF CANYON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
721 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             FELT                    36.57N 102.78W
06/19/2008  M1.50 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL 550 605PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00668

JM

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