Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
834 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574. AN INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS IN THE AREA HAS LED TO THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SPC RUC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES
SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -5. IN ADDITION STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. A S/WV IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE TREAT OF TSRA GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. APPEARS
KDHT AND KGUY ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THUNDER WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO INSERTED A VCTS GROUP. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES SO NOT
CONFIDENT TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA WILL DEVELOP. ANTICIPATE IFR TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AFTER THE PRECIP DISSIPATES...WITH CIGS
LIFTING AFTER 18 OR 19Z IF NOT SOONER. A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER DURING
THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH CU REDEVELOPING NEAR THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF CYCLE. WINDS SHOULD GENLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTH EAST...AND INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE LL JET INTENSIFIES. MAY
THEN SEE A BRIEF WIND LUL NEAR SUNRISE.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...MADE FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDED CLOSE WITH
THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...UPPED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING. PRECIP ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA FROM CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES...AND ANTICIPATE THE LARGE COMPLEX IN
EASTERN COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND IMPACT THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE DAY 1 TIME
FRAME...AND LEFT HIGH QPF VALUES ACROSS THE EAST FOR TONIGHT. MAIN
SEVERE CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HAIL AND WINDS...BUT ISOLATED SUPER
CELLS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNSTABLE AIR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TUCUMCARI PROFILER SHOWING WINDS TRYING
TO BACK IN THE LL EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH 18Z AMARILLO
SOUNDING SHOWED WEAK LL WINDS AND A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE CAPPING TO BE AN ISSUE AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM...AND
THINKING THE LL JET INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT.

NOTICED MODELS KEEP A MILD EARLY MORNING DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BY DROPPING DEW POINT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS.
PLUS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. SO FELT GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
TO WARM ON MORNING LOWS...SO ADJUSTED APPROPRIATELY. COULD NOT
IDENTIFY ONE ABSOLUTELY DRY DAY THROUGH MONDAY SO FELT SOME POPS WERE
WARRANTED EACH DAY UNTIL THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FURTHER EAST TUESDAY
AND FORCES PRICIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THE SAME
TIME...APPEARS ANY OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THINKING TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE 30 TO 35C RANGE...WITH A 594 UPPER HIGH PARKS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO EVEN A FEW
100 DEGREES...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE STILL SEEMINGLY IN
PLACE...THINKING THE TRIPLE DIGITS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. SO
GENERALLY STAYED IN THE UPPER 90S.

JJB

FIRE WEATHER...
FEW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE ONLY FIRE WEATHER ISSUE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
838 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION.

CLK

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